ENGLISH TEXTS
en particularly beneficial for European consumers, whose purchasing power remains highly dependent on energy costs. We are thus witnessing a true oil price counter-shock. On Monday, April 7 th, the VIX index reached levels not seen since the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008— around 50-60. Equity markets rapidly lost between 10 % and 20 %, depending on the region, with some like Hong Kong plummeting 13 % in a single day. This trend reversed on April 10 th when Trump announced a temporary 90-day suspension of the new tariffs— except for China. As is almost always the case( e. g., 2000 and 2008), economic shocks and recessions originate in the United States, which accounts for a quarter of global GDP. This time, the crisis wasn’ t triggered by a speculative bubble, runaway debt, or a misaligned monetary policy. The shock is first and foremost protectionist— and potentially inflationary. By way of comparison, history reminds us of the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which slashed global trade by two-thirds between 1929 and 1933. The U. S. has a long history of tariff decisions, one of the first being enacted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790. This is also a shock of uncertainty, as no one knows whether the negotiations— being bilateral— will succeed. Major macroeconomic forecasting firms all predict a negative impact on U. S. households, and thus on the growth of the American giant. The projected hit to U. S. GDP is estimated between-1 % and-2 %, which would drag global growth just above the 2.5 % threshold. Clearly, this cyclical downturn does not resemble the dramatic collapse after Lehman Brothers( when the global financial system froze) nor the Covid crisis( when entire economies came to a halt). However, where it becomes more concerning is in its potential to become a structural cycle reversal, if trade negotiations fail to reach a favorable outcome. That said, the severity of the market correction— and the tensions that followed on U. S. debt just days later— may well push the American president to find a more“ cordial” compromise with his economic partners. He has also revealed his weakness— his impulsive excess— and will have to remain patient to clear the next hurdles in this wild race he has started with his Chinese and European competitors. After all, if you want to go far, you must spare your horse...
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SALES
VICKI GIBBINS’ CHRONICLE
OVERVIEW OF SALES ACROSS THE GLOBE
GOFFS AINTREE SALE – 3 APRIL The Goffs Aintree Sale has been a highlight of the threeday Grand National meeting since its inauguration in 2017, with previous graduates including Graded performers Samcro and Croke Park. The sale continued an upward trajectory with seventeen lots making six-figure sums, the second-highest turnover achieved – topped by Largo Go at £ 305,000. Bought by Jonjo and AJ O’ Neill, the Poet’ s Word four-year-old was an impressive winner at Loughbrickland on pointto-point debut and justified his expensive price tag.
TATTERSALLS CRA- VEN BREEZE-UP SALE – 14 / 15 / 16 APRIL Records were broken with startling results at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up Sale, the first of six breezeup sales in a six-week period across Europe. Business appeared to be strong on the opening day of the sale as the previously-held record-high price of 1.15 million guineas was surpassed by an Acclamation colt, who was
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