ENGLISH VERSION
Trainers play a pivotal role in every large scale breeding operation and Francis Graffard took over responsibility for the Aga Khan’ s Chantilly training centre in 2022 following the retirement of Alain de Royer Dupre. An academic paper published in March of this year by Dublin based The Economic and Social Research Group based upon the cumulated results of thousands of horses who had passed through public auctions in Britain and Ireland looked for explanations for the less than perfect correlation between prices obtained at auction and success on the racecourse. The study’ s conclusion was that the most principal factor was the trainers involved as high ranked trainers had significantly better results with both expensive and inexpensive horses compared with lower ranking trainers. It estimated the effect of trainers as between 30-40 % of the difference between expected and actual results. Graffard has had exceptional results for both the Aga Khan and his other clients in the years since 2022 but it is not as if the Aga Khan’ s previous trainers were anything other than high ranked ones. The most likely explanation lies elsewhere. The Aga Khan Studs bred a total of 93 horses in 2023, forty four colts and forty nine fillies. At the end of May of their three year old career these already include the Group 1 winner Rayif, the Jockey- Club contenders Dolmalan and Daryzan, the Prix de Diane possibles Zayida and Behrayna and many others who are already, or are likely to become, stakes horses; Synaran, Erdenali, Varandir, Asakir, Kinasani, Vardif, Mirik, Ebiyar, Tashakour, Calasita, Edaja, Narissa, Azamita, Valasara. By the end of the year it will be surprising if there are not at least twenty stakes performers, or 22 % of the foals, and three or four Group 1 performers, 3-4 %. These are exceptional results and about three times better than the average. If you look at the progeny of Europe’ s top 100 stallions there are about 8 % are black type performers and 1 % Group 1 performers so for the 2023 crop the Aga Khan Studs are returning results at least three times better than those of the progeny of the best stallions. The Aga Khan Studs’ own stallions include three of the best in Europe. There are currently ten European stallions who have more than 10 % stakes performers to runners with their three year olds. Frankel leads the list with 22 % followed by Zarak and Kingman together on 17 % and then Siyouni is fourth with 14 %. Of the Aga Khan Studs’ three year olds 22 are by either one of their two star stallions Zarak and Siyouni, and of these at least 8 or 36 % are already or look very likely to become Group or stakes horses. About 25 % of the Aga Khan Studs’ three year olds are by Zarak or Siyouni and having free access to two of the best stallions in Europe is a game changer for any breeding operation. The Aga Khan Studs did not use either sire a great deal at the beginning of their careers so it has taken time for the full effect to be seen on the racecourse, but over the coming years there will be plenty, the 2025 crop of 91 foals includes 20 or 22 % by the two home stars, and another thirteen by one of the other Aga Khan Studs stallions. And then, of course, if you can cover a quarter of your mares by top sires for free, with little opportunity costs either in these days of large books, the budget for stallion fees will go further than would otherwise be the case for the remaining mares. Success in breeding leads to a virtuous circle as if you are breeding and racing top racehorses you are also producing future elite producers. The stars of 2009 included Darykana, the dam of Daryz and Ervedya from 2015 is the dam of stallion Erevann who will have his first runners in 2026 together with the Jockey-Club winner Vadeni. Future Aga Khan Studs stallions are likely to include both Daryz and Rayif, as well as one or two of the other star three year olds of 2026.
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