World Food Policy WFP Volume 4, No. 2, Spring 2018 | Page 20

World Food Policy
Figure 3.2. Trends in prices in 2030 relative to 2010 by climate and investment scenario
Source: IFPRI IMPACT model version 3.2. October 2016.
Food security
2030, the population at risk of hunger
falls by only about 60 million. Region-
al results for hunger are consistently
worse under climate change. Climate
change hits the SSA region particularly
hard. Its share of population at risk of
hunger in 2030 rises significantly due to
climate change. The comprehensive in-
vestment scenario dramatically reduces
the population at risk of hunger. The
number of hungry with climate change
and comprehensive investments is 180
million lower in 2030 compared to the
climate change scenario with baseline
investments. Relative to 2010, the inci-
dence of hunger in the developing world
declines from 14 percent to 6 percent
due to increased investments while the
absolute number of hungry in the de-
veloping world falls from 823 million in
2010 to 400 million in 2030. Moreover,
the comprehensive investment scenario
achieves significant reductions in hun-
ger in all developing regions, with the
largest improvements in SAS and SSA.
In the comprehensive scenario, com-
modity prices fall steeply while income
sharply rises, leading to significant in-
creases in kilocalorie availability rela-
tive to the reference scenario across the
developing world in 2030 (Figure 3.3).
SAS and SSA see the largest increases in
kilocalorie availability under the com-
prehensive investment scenario. Fig-
ure 3.4 shows the projections for hun-
ger under the alternative scenarios. In
the reference scenario, the number of
hungry people declines between 2010
and 2030 due to rising food production
and income. Under climate change,
these improvements are still made, but
at a slower rate. The SAS region sees
the largest reduction in population at
risk of hunger by 2030, but hunger re-
mains high in this region. The trend
for the SSA region is also worth not-
ing. In 2010, the estimated number of
people at risk of hunger is comparable
between SAS and SSA, but in SSA by
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