World Food Policy WFP Volume 4, No. 2, Spring 2018 | Page 19

Global and Regional Perspectives of Food Economy and Policy
modities price is projected to be be-
tween 12 and 18 percent higher under
climate change than under the no-cli-
mate change reference scenario. The
price impacts on specific commodity
groups vary depending on crop adapt-
ability and specific demands on pro-
Production for all major com- ducers. Maize, groundnut, and potato
modity groups increases between 2010 see the largest price increases; barley,
and 2030 across both developed and lentils, and meat are less affected.
developing regions. As with yields,
In IMPACT, prices influence
however, production growth is slow- commodity supply and demand, while
er under climate change conditions trade links national production and de-
across developing countries, while in mand to world markets. Under climate
developed countries effects are more change, developing countries increase
variable. This leads to an overall trend their net agricultural imports from
of lower agricultural production under the developed world between 2010
climate change across all regions, with and 2030 under the reference scenario,
the Former Soviet Union (FSU) as an with large increases in imports of cere-
exception in line with the above-noted als, pulses. and oilseeds. the develop-
yield results.
ing world will also shift from being net
The comprehensive scenario exporters of fruits and vegetables and
generates large increases in productiv- roots and tubers to being moderate im-
ity across the developing world, greatly porters.
improving agricultural competitive-
In the comprehensive scenar-
ness. The combination of investments io, large increases in production push
in productivity, irrigation expansion, down prices globally, with reductions
water use efficiencies, and reductions of nearly 20 percent in 2030. All target-
in marketing inefficiencies increases ed commodities see their world prices
the developing world’s total agricultural decline by more than 10 percent, with
production by about 9.8 percent in 2030 the largest declines occurring for roots
relative to the reference scenario. All and tubers and pulses. In the compre-
targeted regions benefit; the largest in- hensive scenario, the developing world
creases are projected in SSA (20 percent improves its agricultural terms of trade,
in 2030) with SAS, and MEN increasing becoming a net exporter in some re-
production between 15-18 percent.
gions as opposed to a net importer in
the reference scenario. This transition
Prices and trade
varies regionally; exporting regions
In general, climate change drives world such as LAC and EAP become larger
commodity prices higher. In 2030, the exporters, while the importing regions
average aggregated world crop com- SAS and SSA import less.
not necessarily the case for each single
crop. In the developing world, average
yields across the cereals group are esti-
mated to decline by 6-9 percent under
climate change by 2030. Overall, yield
losses due to climate change are largest
in SAS, followed by LAC and SSA.
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