World Food Policy WFP Volume 4, No. 2, Spring 2018 | Page 18

World Food Policy
Three scenarios were analyzed
using the IMPACT system of mod-
els. These are 2030 Shared Socioeco-
nomic Policy 2 (SSP2) from IPCC, but
with no climate change where pop-
ulation and income trends are from
SSP2. The baseline scenario includes
“business-as-usual” projections of ag-
ricultural investments and productivi-
ty growth, and climate held constant at
2005 levels. Another scenario is SSP2
with climate change that has the same
assumptions as the first scenario, but
climate follows the relatively “severe”
model representation of Hadley Gen-
eral Circulation Model (HGEM) of
the warmest future climate scenario,
RCP 8.5. Finally, the third scenario is
2030 with climate change and compre-
hensive investment portfolio at US$55
billion per year above baseline. This
scenario uses the climate change sce-
nario as a reference point and overlays
scenario that combines additional in-
vestments (starting in 2015) targeted at
ameliorating major constraints in the
global food system. The comprehensive
scenario includes increased CGIAR in-
vestments in agricultural research and
development (R&D) to increase agri-
cultural productivity in the developing
world; increased investment in expan-
sion of irrigation systems along with
enhancing water use efficiency and soil
management (system efficiency, no-till,
integrated soil fertility management,
rainwater harvesting); and infrastruc-
ture investment in transportation and
energy sectors including rail, roads,
electricity, to benefit agricultural pro-
duction and value chains (post-harvest
losses and marketing margins). Results
are shown for the world, for develop-
ing countries, and for the regions of
East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), South
Asia (SAS), Africa South of the Sahara
(SSA), Middle East and North Africa
(MEN), and Latin America and the Ca-
ribbean (LAC).
Impacts on income, agriculture,
and food security to 2030
Income
In the reference scenario, global average
incomes increase substantially, driven
primarily by faster growth in the devel-
oping world. However, climate change
slows income growth in all regions, the
most in developing countries. The larg-
est impacts are in SAS and SSA, where
incomes in 2030 are 3 percent lower
than they would be in the absence of
climate change, compared to a reduc-
tion of 0.25 percent in developed coun-
tries. The comprehensive scenario sees
significant increases in income, which
helps overall welfare and contributes to
reductions in hunger. Relative to the
reference in 2030, incomes rise by just
over 4 percent in 2030.
Yield, production, and area
Globally, climate change will compound
pressure on agriculture. Although glob-
al average yields for the majority of
crops are estimated to increase between
2010 and 2030, regardless of climate ef-
fects, climate change results in generally
slower growth compared to the NoCC
scenario. As a result, aggregate yields
are reduced under climate change for
all commodity groups, although this is
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