World Food Policy WFP Volume 4, No. 2, Spring 2018 | Page 21

Global and Regional Perspectives of Food Economy and Policy
Figure 3.3. Calorie availability (kcal/person/day) by 2030 by climate
and investment scenario
Source: IFPRI IMPACT model version 3.2. October 2016.
Figure 3.4. Prevalence of hunger, in millions of people and as a share
of the total population (percent)
Note: NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; CC reflects a climate future using RCP 8.5 and the
HGEM Climate Model. The bars represent the number of people at risk of hunger in each region
(left axis). The bubbles represent the share of the region’s total population at risk of hunger (right
axis). The dotted lines reflect the change in the share at risk of hunger over time and across scenari-
os. The solid black line represents a target threshold of 5 percent of the population at risk of hunger.
Source: Rosegrant, M.W., T.B. Sulser, D. Mason-D’Croz, N. Cenacchi, A. Nin-Pratt, S. Dunston,
T. Zhu, C. Ringler, K. Wiebe, S. Robinson, D. Willenbockel, H. Xie, H-Y Kwon, T. Johnson, T.S.
Thomas, F. Wimmer, R. Schaldach, G.C. Nelson, and B. Willaarts. 2017. Quantitative Foresight
Modeling to Inform the CGIAR Research Portfolio. Project Report, Washington DC, USA:
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://www.ifpri.org/publication/foresight-
modeling-agricultural-research
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