The Senior Analyst Jan. 2014 | Page 29

THE SENIOR ANALYST Measures to stop smuggling Aware of this fact, government officials also stepped up checks to prevent the entry of smuggled gold. Earlier travellers would decorate their whole body with gold ornaments and some would even conceal carbon wrapped gold pieces in their body while coming back to India from Middle East, Thailand and Singapore but now there is a limit on the jewellery that one can carry on his body or in one’s pocket. India also developed an understanding with its neighbors for controlling their inflow and outflow of gold. Sri Lanka for example raised taxes on gold imports and Pakistan banned gold imports in August as both countries believed that much of the inflow was smuggled to India. Yet the smugglers flourish When the easy routes to smuggle gold are stopped, it gives way to a rise in smuggling through major international syndicates. Now major criminal cartels are eyeing the opportunity to venture into this filed which would eventually lead to ship based and other high tech smuggling. Some smugglers would even open up software companies abroad that would even employ 20-30 people to pay for the Gold smuggling. How this does happens? Well, a company would simply be writing 50 lines of codes for a fictitious client in India and raise a false invoicing of $100 thousand, now all of us know that 50 lines of code cannot cost a hundred thousand dollars, but no one can stop it if a company is really charging it and a client is willing to pay. Thus, the fictitious organization abroad is paid the money in the name of software and gold is smuggled in anyhow into India. Now what is the big deal with smuggling if it keeps the gold inflow going and yet India can show a lower CAD on its books? The issue here is that if the Indians keep on paying for more gold it will negate the benefits that a low CAD may have Jan 2014 on the economy, this however will not be felt over the short term and the government policies are precisely designed to take care of the short term (read 2014 elections). Furthermore, these smugglers are in a nexus that funds terrorist activities, recently Patiala Police arrested a businessman who was allegedly involved with Dawood Ibrahim and his brother Anees in a gold smuggling racket, a relationship that dated back to the 80s. The way forward What can we do to stop the import of gold and yet satisfy a moderate demand for the same? India is the largest buyer of bullion gold and it is one commodity that is stashed into the coffers after purchase till the time it is enchased. What the government can do is to circulate this stacked up gold in the economy thereby reducing foreign reliance. Let’s have a look at the OMC Swap to see how this can be affected. OMC swaps are schemes devised by the central bank to issue dollars to the Oil Marketing companies for exchange of equivalent rupees, which the OMCs need to payback over a period of time. The idea is simply to save the rupee as the rupee might further depreciate if OMCs need to purchase dollars from open market. Similarly a swap option maybe effected to purchase gold from consumers and institutions who hoard them in huge quantity. Any institution which hoards gold, be it a trust, a charity or a temple or any religious body like Gurdwara or Monasteries are essentially keeping a lot of its fund unutilized. Banks may thus purchase these gold and pay them back a year later its rupee equivalent with interest. This will help the banks to circulate gold in the economy without importing from abroad and would also encourage temples and other non-profit organizations to utilize their fund, instead of hoarding them as a hedge against inflation. Of course there would be religious sentiments involved in the issue but temples do Page 29