The Senior Analyst Jan. 2014 | Page 28

THE SENIOR ANALYST has emerged as safe bets. Though gold is an investment, it does not bear any fruit for the Indian economy. Parking money in this precious metal slows down economic growth by squeezing out money of the system. Surprisingly, oil imports inspite of adding to the trade deficit enhances industrial growth. Meanwhile, a growing trade deficit leads the country to devaluation of currency which drives away foreign funds out of India. This in turn results in less investment and a vicious cycle is formed. What’s the big deal with CAD? If a country exports more than it imports then it will have a current account surplus. E.g. a country like Germany and South Korea produces a lot of things that the rest of the world would need than it would need from the rest of the world, on the contrary countries running a deficit on the current account i.e. those who need more things from abroad than they can sell to the world have the problem of funding this deficit from an external source. Now USA also has a high current account deficit, but since all international payments of US are made in dollars it can print the dollars to make for the shortfall and thus can afford to have a high current account deficit .India however, cannot make its payments in Rupees and thus it needs to borrow dollars from an external source. If my import bill is $60billion but I can raise only $40 billion through exports then I would need additional $20billion being funded from outside. This can be done in two ways A)RBI sells its dollar reserves- When RBI sells its dollar reserves it will buy Rupee from the bank and thus business will have the access to the extra dollars that it needs for funding the import balance. Jan 2014 Gold a major contributors to CAD Gold contributed significantly to the current account deficit. In August the government used measures to curb the incessant consumption of gold by Indians by increasing the import duty on gold by 10%, and of jewellery to 15% and by announcing a total ban on gold coin imports. This helped the gold imports to come down to $3.8 billion from a mammoth $16billion and miraculously helped the CAD to come down from $21.7 billi