VVThe EU has always experienced forms of ethnic migration, but in the post-1989 context, many of these population movements have been labour-motivated9. Following a Keynesian economic approach, “both welfare differences between a potential receiving and a potential sending country and the situation in the labour market in receiving countries may influence migration flows”10. Particularly in the post-Soviet and post-Yugoslav states, Tepfenhart notes that “economic issues have the potential to increase tension between groups… the transition from a central planned economy to a market economy was very traumatic for the people”11. The clientalist, trust-based economies of the former Soviet and former Yugoslav states had difficult transitions to capitalist economies where business arrangements were based on contract rather than familiarity with individuals12. Jennissen notes that during labour shortages, receiving countries lower their entry criteria, leading to influxes of migrants, particularly from states bordering the EU to the south and east; however, during phases of high unemployment, entry criteria may become more difficult, and tensions between domestic and migrant populations may rise due to competition for jobs13.
VVAlthough there are political factors for heightening ethnic tensions, social factors have been presented that in theory would help reduce ethnic tensions and promote integration. A significant school of thought is the modernization theory illustrated by Strabac et al., whereby “with the increasing modernization of societies, ethnic identities and ethnic antipathies will decline…members of the modern strata of the population will be less likely to express ethnic intolerance than those in traditional groups”[1]. Following common logic on urban demographics, this conclusion seems reasonable – the multiculturalism prevalent in major cities such as London, Paris, and Berlin seem to be proponents to this fact. Modernization, including aspects of urbanization, promotes education and socializes tolerance[2]; they find that “empirical research on ethnic intolerance and prejudice is regularly producing results that are consistent with the modernization approach”[3]. However, Budapest, Athens, and Warsaw are not global capitals exhibiting as widespread multicultural populations. The distribution of intolerance across Europe leans heavier in the east- and southeastern European states more then in the West.
8. Bieber 2004
9. Jennissen 2011
10. Ibid. p.262
11. Tepfenhart 2013, p.91
12. Tepfenhart 2013
13. Jennissen 2011
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