Stainless Steel World Magazine June 2026 | Page 38

margin, accounting for over 65 % of global usage in 2025 and is forecast to maintain that share in 2026. Demand grew 4.2 % in 2025, underpinned primarily by the stainless steel( STS) sector, and is forecast to rise a further 4.3 % in 2026. The battery segment is expected to regain momentum in 2026 after contributing at a somewhat reduced pace in 2025. Indonesia started STS production in 2017 and by 2020 had overtaken Japan to become the world’ s second-largest nickel consumer. After surging to 383 kt in 2021, demand contracted in 2022 and 2023 as several countries imposed import restrictions on STS. A recovery followed in 2024, and consumption rose a further 5.3 % in 2025. It is forecast to grow 10.3 % in 2026. The country is also pursuing a broader objective of developing a downstream battery and EV industry, with nickel expected to play a central role. In Europe, demand has been under pressure, contracting in 2024 and falling a further 2.3 % in 2025, before a modest recovery of 1.1 % is forecast for 2026. The Americas recorded growth of 4.3 % in 2025, led by the United States where demand rose 4.9 %, and consumption is forecast to expand a further 2.7 % in 2026, with the US again expected to be the primary driver. Africa saw usage dip 4.8 % in 2025, but a strong rebound of 21.2 % is forecast for 2026, supported by a new battery plant in Morocco that came online in 2025 and is poised to lift regional demand in the years ahead. At the end-use level, the STS sector remains the dominant first-use market for primary nickel, accounting for more than two thirds of total consumption, and was the primary driver of nickel demand growth in both 2024 and 2025. This is expected to remain the case in 2026, with China continuing to lead global STS production growth and Indonesia emerging as an increasingly significant producer. In China, STS production is expected to be supported by infrastructure and machinery demand, continued export growth, and the increasing use of scrap as a cost-efficient and lower-carbon alternative to NPI. In Europe, STS production is expected to recover in 2026, with any gains driven more by import constraints than underlying demand, supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

( CBAM) and a potential mid-2026 quota reduction. In the United States, STS production rose in 2025, underpinned by Section 232 tariffs, though demand has softened since late 2025. Nickel consumption in EV batteries softened in 2025, with the sector falling short of earlier expectations. LFP chemistry continued to advance, as a number of European and North American OEMs shifted towards these batteries for entry-level and mid-range models, and the technology held an 80 % share of domestic installations in China. A broader consumer trend away from full battery EVs and towards plug-in hybrids weighed additionally on nickel demand. Solid-state batteries remain at the pilot stage and are not expected to have any meaningful bearing on nickel demand in 2026. The near-term outlook for BEV sales points to a deceleration in 2026 after a strong 2025. North America faces the most pronounced headwinds, with sales expected to contract as tax credits are withdrawn and emissions standards are relaxed. In China, growth is set to moderate following a pull-forward of purchases into 2025 ahead of incentive

LME nickel prices and stocks

tonnes

Thousands

500

450

LME Daily Stocks SHFE Stocks LME Off Warrant LME Prices( RHS)

USD / t 23,000

22,000

400

350 300

250

21,000

20,000

19,000

18,000

200

150

17,000

16,000

100

50

15,000

14,000

Sources: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange Note: LME off-warrant Jan-Apr 2025 figures are weekly.

38 Stainless Steel World June 2026 www. stainless-steel-world. net