[ Nickel ] added complexity means that, for any given nickel grade, ore pricing now falls within a range rather than a single figure. While saprolite prices are not expected to shift substantially, limonite grades – whose cobalt content typically meets the charge threshold – are the most affected, with certain grades possibly more than doubling in price. Prior to the HPM revision, ore prices had already been trending upward, though the impact on downstream production remained limited: NPI output declined, but increased matte production from NPI kept total nickel output broadly flat y-o-y in early 2026. Looking ahead, the combination of the revised pricing mechanism and reduced RKAB quotas introduces further uncertainty, with constrained ore availability potentially weighing on production for the rest of the year. Outside of Indonesia, global nickel mine production in 2025 showed varied performance across regions. The Americas posted solid growth of 9.9 %, led by Brazil(+ 19.0 %) and Canada(+ 14.1 %), partially offset by declines in Colombia and Cuba. Asia ex-Indonesia was broadly stable, with the Philippines growing modestly by 5.9 % to 375 kt, while Myanmar ceased production entirely. Africa recovered slightly to 122.8 kt(+ 3.7 %), with Zambia standing out at + 8.0 %. Looking ahead to 2026, the world total is forecast to decline 5.6 % to 3.902 Mt, with the contraction heavily driven by Indonesia. Outside Indonesia, the picture is more nuanced: Oceania is expected to recover 7.0 %, led by New Caledonia(+ 13.0 %) and Solomon Islands(+ 4.2 %), while the Americas continue to grow modestly at + 2.7 %. Europe and Africa remain broadly stable.
[ Nickel ] added complexity means that, for any given nickel grade, ore pricing now falls within a range rather than a single figure. While saprolite prices are not expected to shift substantially, limonite grades – whose cobalt content typically meets the charge threshold – are the most affected, with certain grades possibly more than doubling in price. Prior to the HPM revision, ore prices had already been trending upward, though the impact on downstream production remained limited: NPI output declined, but increased matte production from NPI kept total nickel output broadly flat y-o-y in early 2026. Looking ahead, the combination of the revised pricing mechanism and reduced RKAB quotas introduces further uncertainty, with constrained ore availability potentially weighing on production for the rest of the year. Outside of Indonesia, global nickel mine production in 2025 showed varied performance across regions. The Americas posted solid growth of 9.9 %, led by Brazil(+ 19.0 %) and Canada(+ 14.1 %), partially offset by declines in Colombia and Cuba. Asia ex-Indonesia was broadly stable, with the Philippines growing modestly by 5.9 % to 375 kt, while Myanmar ceased production entirely. Africa recovered slightly to 122.8 kt(+ 3.7 %), with Zambia standing out at + 8.0 %. Looking ahead to 2026, the world total is forecast to decline 5.6 % to 3.902 Mt, with the contraction heavily driven by Indonesia. Outside Indonesia, the picture is more nuanced: Oceania is expected to recover 7.0 %, led by New Caledonia(+ 13.0 %) and Solomon Islands(+ 4.2 %), while the Americas continue to grow modestly at + 2.7 %. Europe and Africa remain broadly stable.
Primary nickel production World primary nickel production, after expanding 4.4 % in 2024 and a further 8.1 % in 2025, is forecast to reverse course in 2026, contracting by 4.2 % to 3.715 Mt. In Asia, output reached 3.19 Mt in 2025(+ 11.1 %) and is forecast to decline to 3.03 Mt in 2026(-4.9 %). Indonesia, the world’ s leading primary nickel producer since 2021, raised output to 1.89 Mt in 2025 and is forecast to produce 1.77 Mt in 2026, mainly due to a drop in NPI production owing to tighter feed availability. By 2026, the country is expected to account for
World primary nickel production, usage and market balance( in 1000 tonnes)
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BALANCE PRIMARY NICKEL PRODUCTION PRIMARY NICKEL USAGE
Source: INSG( Meetings April 2026)
around 47.6 % of world primary nickel output. Production gains in 2025 were supported by rising output of NPI as well as nickel sulphate and nickel cathode, of which the latter two began production domestically in 2023. The government has suspended approvals for new NPI and MHP projects, directing investment towards higher-value downstream industries. Sulphur is a critical input for MHP production( an intermediate nickel product), requiring 8 – 12 tonnes per tonne of output and representing 40 – 50 % of total production costs. Indonesia sources 75 – 80 % of its sulphur from the Middle East, with nearly 50 % of global seaborne sulphur transiting the Strait of Hormuz, leaving supply heavily exposed to regional disruption. Several MHP producers have already responded by reducing output. Indonesian sulphur stocks offer limited buffer should the conflict persist, and a prolonged disruption could prove severe, potentially forcing further output curtailments across Indonesia’ s HPAL sector. China( P. R.), the world’ s second-largest producer, is projected to account for 29.6 % of global production in 2026. The ongoing shift from declining NPI production toward higher cathode output is expected to persist, but at a slower rate. Nickel sulphate production is projected to rebound, driven by the battery sector. Combined Chinese and Indonesian NPI output reached 2.02 Mt in 2025 and is forecast to ease to 1.95 Mt in 2026.
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Despite this decline, the two countries remain central to global nickel supply, together accounting for the bulk of world primary production. The Americas grew in 2025, with output rising 8.7 %, but are forecast to decline modestly by 1.3 % in 2026, as a decrease in Canada is expected to be only partially offset by higher production in Brazil and the planned restart of FeNix in Guatemala. Similarly, Africa recorded a marginal gain in 2025(+ 0.4 %) but is projected to decline sharply in 2026(-13.5 %), mainly due to an expected decrease in Ambatovy in Madagascar, while Europe saw a slight decline in 2025(-1.7 %) and is expected to recover marginally in 2026(+ 0.4 %). Oceania’ s production dropped sharply again in 2025(-37.9 %), with a modest stabilisation anticipated in 2026(+ 2.5 %).
Primary nickel usage Global nickel consumption has followed a steady upward trajectory since 2009, interrupted only in 2020 when demand edged down by 0.6 %. Growth continued in 2025, with usage rising 3.5 %, and is forecast to expand a further 4.2 % in 2026, with China once again driving the bulk of the absolute increase in both years. Asia further cemented its position as the dominant consuming region, representing 87.8 % of global primary nickel usage in 2025 and is forecast to reach 88.1 % in 2026— a remarkable shift from a 63 % share in 2010. China remained the world’ s largest nickel consumer by a considerable
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