[ Nickel ]
[ Nickel ]
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The world nickel market in 2026 – Indonesia, the influencer
During the most recent International Nickel Study Group meetings, government and industry representatives reviewed forecasts for nickel production and use in 2026. Following is an overview of recent developments based on the data finalised at the meetings.
By Ricardo Ferreira, INSG Director of Market Research and Statistics & Francisco Pinto, INSG Manager of Statistical Analysis
Global growth demonstrated resilience in 2025, supported by AI-related investment and fiscal and monetary policy measures across leading economies. However, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East in late February 2026 is exerting pressure on energy markets and inflation expectations, and global growth is now projected to slow in 2026. How metals markets will ultimately be affected, in terms of production and usage, is still taking shape. The International Nickel Study Group( INSG) revised its global nickel market outlook at its April 2026 meetings, projecting a surplus of 283 thousand tonnes( kt) for 2025. Estimated primary nickel production for the year reached 3.88 million tonnes( Mt) against usage of 3.596Mt. The picture shifts for 2026, where preliminary data suggest a market deficit of 32kt, as output is expected to fall to 3.715Mt while demand climbs to 3.747Mt.
Nickel mine production World nickel mine production declined by 0.8 % in 2024, before rebounding by
11.2 % in 2025. It is projected to decline again by 5.6 % in 2026. Indonesia continues to dominate global nickel mining, contributing an estimated 65 % of world output in 2025 – a share expected to ease to around 62 % in 2026. The country’ s rapid production growth over the past decade reflects the scale of Chinese-backed investment, which has driven broad capacity additions across intermediate products, such as nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate( MHP), as well as primary products such as nickel pig iron( NPI), nickel sulphate, and nickel cathode. Looking ahead, recently announced government policies – RKAB mining quotas and new HPM pricing mechanism – are expected to weigh on the market, introducing a degree of uncertainty into the outlook. The approved RKAB mining quota has been set in the range of 250-270 Mt – down sharply from 379 Mt in 2025 – with only around 210 Mt having received formal approval as of early April. The approval process itself has tightened considerably, shifting from a three-year to an annual cycle while extending in duration from weeks to several months. Against domestic ore consumption of approximately 280 Mt in 2025, this may create a supply gap. That said, the deficit may be partially offset: Indonesia recorded higher year-on-year( y-o-y) ore imports in the first months of 2026, and additional supply could emerge from ore previously directed toward halted ferronickel operations. Miners retain the option to apply for upward quota revisions around mid-year, making this a key variable to monitor through the second half of the year. Indonesia’ s revised nickel ore benchmark pricing mechanism( HPM), effective 15 April 2026, fundamentally changes how ore costs are assessed. For the first time, the formula incorporates cobalt, iron, and chromium content: cobalt above a 0.05 % threshold incurs an additional charge, while iron and chromium are priced at coefficients of 30 % and 10 %, respectively. This
36 Stainless Steel World June 2026 www. stainless-steel-world. net