[ Nickel ]
[ Nickel ]
changes. Europe is the only region moving in the opposite direction, where tightening emissions targets and continued policy support are expected to sustain momentum.
Nickel prices and stocks During 2025 the London Metal Exchange( LME) nickel price( close, cash seller) was relatively stable with a slight downwards trend from about 15,000 USD / t in the beginning of the year to about 14,100 USD / t by mid- December. Coinciding with an uncertain period for geopolitics and international trade policies, prices briefly dipped to a low of 13,815 USD / t by 9 April, but quickly recovered to levels above 15,000 USD / t. From mid-May, prices started to erode – from a maximum of 15,725 USD / t by 14 May, to a low of 14,125 USD / t on 16 December. This was a period of softening in international trade disputes and a looser nickel market. Towards the end of December 2025, announcements of tighter RKAB ore quotas for 2026 and reports of fund money flows to base metals came alongside a sharp increase in LME nickel prices. By 7 January 2026 prices had surpassed 18,000 USD / t for the first time since June 2024 and peaked at 18,750 USD / t by 29 January. After this, as the Middle East conflict broke, prices cooled down, staying mostly in a range between 16,500 USD / t and 18,000 USD / t until mid-April. The second half of April saw another sharp rise in prices, that climbed to 19,270 USD / t by the end of the month, coinciding with tightened availability of commodities and an upwards revision of the Indonesian benchmark ore price. Combined LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange( SHFE) end-of-month stocks increased at an average pace of about 9,300 t from January 2025 until April 2026, with the largest net deliveries taking place in September and October 2025 and January 2026. By end-April combined LME and SHFE stocks were just above 347,000 t, levels not seen since April 2018. LME off-warrant stocks have also reached historical highs, climbing from about 70,000 t by the beginning of 2025, to over 110,000 t in March and April this year. A surge in LME stocks in the first full week of 2026, simultaneous with a price increase of over 9 %, was largely compensated by a decline in off-warrant stocks, leaving the total amount of visible stocks relatively stable. Looking at LME stocks by origin, China P. R. has reinforced its position as the main source, steadily increasing from a share of 50 % by the beginning of 2025 to over 70 % by end-April 2026. This corresponds to a net inflow of nearly 99,000 t over this period, although from February to April this year 9,400 t of stocks of Chinese origin were drawn down. This was partially compensated by inflows of 4,000 t of Indonesian material in the first four months of the current year. At the end of April Russia remained the second-largest origin of LME stocks, with a 10 % share, followed by Australia with just under 7 %, decreasing from 16 % and 13 %, respectively, since April last year. Indonesia ranks third, with a share of just above 6.5 %, increasing nearly 3 percentage points y-o-y. For the whole of 2025 and the first four months of 2026, nickel trading activity on the LME has remained above the levels seen before the disruption event in March 2022. In January 2026, a record high of 157,000 contracts were traded on average per day in the LME, the highest level in more than 15 years.
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