Reports ComTech Forecasts 2015 Global CTRM Market at $1.68 | Page 6

2015–2020 CTRM Market Outlook

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vendors have found success selling products into the Singapore
and Hong Kong markets, with national oil companies and large
metals and agricultural trading companies being particularly
active buyers of vendor systems. However, given cultural and
language differences outside of the major trading centers in
the region, western-oriented CTRM vendors have continued to
have difficulties selling their products within the borders of the
largest economies in the region, particularly China and Japan,
and these markets are still dominated by custom developed
solutions. Overall, while the outlook for additional sales in the

region remain strong, sales of new product licenses is not consistent from year-to-year and we expect this trend to continue
for the foreseeable future. Despite this, liberalization of national
power and gas markets is proceeding in various countries in the
region, with Japan seen as a particular area of interest at the
moment. In addition, more complex regulatory environments
in the West have driven some trading operations to the area.
As a result, the market is growing and we assume this market
will continue to grow faster than in other geographic region.

MARKET OUTLOOK AND STUDY
ASSUMPTIONS
Within the last year, a number of significant changes have occurred in the commodities markets that
will impact market growth in CTRM. In particular, the
collapse of oil prices in late 2014 has had an impact
on several market segments, though particularly oil
producers, and especially those in North America,
stalling projects and reducing the outlook for new license sales in 2015. However, with the fall in oil prices, there has been knock-on impacts across several
other commodity classes as oil derived products (as
such fuel for production and transportation) are a significant cost contributor to every other commodity.

New market regulations, with implementation begun in
2012, have created much uncertainty in the market and appear
to have reduced the number of entities trading commodities,
particularly energies.

The following assumptions were utilized in the development of the forward-looking market analysis:
// Growth estimates reflects current consensus outlook for
global economic growth of 3 to 3.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Though this rate has been revised upward when
compared with recent years, much of the forecast growth is
expected to occur in developing countries, regions in which
there is little or no market for CTRM products. With a continuing, though slower than expected recovery in the larger

economies, overall growth in the market for CTRM products is
anticipated to be in line with earlier ComTech estimates.
// All data is expressed in 2014 dollars – there have been no
adjustments for inflation or currency exchange rate changes
over the period 2015 to 2020.
// In line with previous estimates, ComTech currently believes
the global market for CTRM licenses (including ASP/SaaS)
will grow, on average, approximately 5% per year from 2015
to 2020
|| Traditionally installed software license sales will grow by
approximately 3.5-4.5% per year during that period.
|| Growth in ASP/SaaS/Cloud will be approximately 15-17%
per year reflecting a high rate of market adoption for cloud
related technologies.
// That being said, as the trend toward cloud continues, it is difficult at this time to accurately forecast the full implications
of this changing mix of perpetual license vs. annual license
revenues with complete certainty.
// A lower rate of growth from 2014 to 2015 primarily reflects
reduced spending associated with the completion in 2014 of
several exceptionally large deals done in late 2012. Based on
early 2015 results compiled at the time of this analysis, we
anticipate 2014 to 2015 license sales to show lower growth
as compared to the later years in our analysis.
// In general, we see future growth rates reflecting an increasing
number of smaller deals as E/CTRM software is adopted in
the cloud by smaller firms and a decreasing number of larger
traditionally licensed deals as the top tier becomes saturated.
We believe that an increasing number of deals will be made

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