Protection of Civilians Military Reference Guide
IMPACT OF OPERATIONS
a . Military forces usually must strike a balance between offensive , defensive , and stability actions , and that balance will vary in different parts of the AO and at different times . Commanders should anticipate and understand both the short and long-term effects of the operations on the operational environment , actors , and dynamics . A heavy emphasis on offensive operations may seize the initiative and weaken perpetrators . Conversely , it could provoke retaliation , generate national resistance , result in civilian casualties , or divert forces from long-term stability efforts that may be more important . Operations that are primarily defensive in nature may protect some important locations , but could cede both initiative and territory to adversaries and fail to protect many civilians .
b . Joint operations that are led by foreign forces could fail to develop host-state forces adequately ; however , operations by host-state forces may be ineffective or themselves could pose a threat to civilians . Some operations could result in the short-term protection of civilians but result in greater long-term risk , such as subsequent retaliation by perpetrators . Others could be locally successful , but operationally or strategically detrimental .
CHANGING VULNERABILITIES AND THREATS
a . Civilian vulnerabilities and attendant threats will constantly change . The military force should particularly anticipate that CRSV and threats to children are likely to be present in any complex situation , and the nature of these threats may evolve with changing circumstances .
b . Perpetrators may adapt and modify their approaches to targeting civilians , and new adversaries could form that pose challenges for PoC . Perpetrators may want to take revenge , intimidate civilians from cooperating with military forces or other authorities , demonstrate the authorities ’ inability to provide security and governance , or pursue criminal activities such as kidnapping for ransom , human trafficking , narco-trafficking , extortion , or robbery . It is possible that actors who were previously victims may , in turn , become perpetrators against other victims . New threats could include security forces and others who had previously been “ partners ” of the military force .
c . Civilians can be threatened as old grievances flare up and new ones arise over issues such as land and water rights , political and religious matters , employment , and a rate of progress that is perceived as too slow or excluding part of the population . Even if violence is held at reasonably low levels , civilians may still be vulnerable to other human security threats such as malnutrition , disease , and a lack of essential services . These can be particularly magnified in the event of natural or other disasters , or policy changes implemented by humanitarian organizations or governments .
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Military forces should be alert for events and trends that can have a positive impact and may be reinforced . Events may be specific occurrences such as meetings , holidays , elections , ceasefires , ceremonies , or seasonal and climactic changes . Progress in one area may be highlighted as a successful model that should be emulated elsewhere . Conflict fatigue may also provide an opportunity ; this may be most prominent among groups such as women , the elderly , students , religious leaders , or farmers . It may be possible to encourage and enable such sentiments through effective and concerted IA .
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