Protection of Civilians Military Reference Guide, Second Edition Second Edition | Page 45

Protection of Civilians Military Reference Guide
O THER D YNAMICS
All of the situational GPMESII and actor variables could change in ways that can affect the
PoC situation. Military forces must be aware of such changes in the operational environment and
continually reassess the GPMESII variables and actors described earlier. Additionally, they should
reappraise their situational understanding with partners and other actors to ensure a common
appreciation of the issues and measures that should be taken. Some of these possible changes
include the following:
• Operational Environment (GPMESII):
o Geographic: seasonal changes, natural disasters, droughts.
o Political: international, regional, national, and sub-national debates.
o Military/Security: conflict, capability and capacity changes.
o Economic: indicators such as employment, trade, growth, illicit activity.
o Social: DP movements, group preferences and expectations.
o Information: changes in capability, messages, population access.
o Infrastructure: changes in capacity and needs.
• Actors: internal debates, new leaders, new actors, changes in capabilities, requirements,
motivations, intentions, vulnerabilities.
Task Challenges
The biggest challenge for commanders and staffs is to understand, prioritize, and ultimately
shape dynamic trends that are either not obvious or are in opposition to other dynamics.
Additionally, leaders must have an appreciation of their capabilities and limitations in influencing
the dynamics. Persistent CRSV and shifting patterns of corruption will likely be intractable
problems, and insufficient or obsolete strategic guidance will often be a complication for
commanders.
Task 4: Understand Civilian Vulnerabilities and Threats
Task Description
PoC risks are characterized by their context, the types of risk, and the related vulnerabilities
and threats. Military forces must have a clear understanding of how the operational environment,
the actors, and dynamics shape these variables to plan and conduct operations that protect civilians
effectively.
Task Relevance to PoC
Military assessments and plans must account for the interplay between vulnerabilities and
threats, and operations should be effectively tailored to mitigate civilian risks. Some vulnerabilities
and threats are directly relevant to military operations, while others are less relevant and more
appropriate for mitigation by other actors. This task is performed continuously, as vulnerabilities
and threats could change rapidly.
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