PKSOI/GLOBAL TRENDS CASE STUDIES Controlling Ukraine, The EU and Russia in Ukraine | Page 12

Case Study # 0517-02
PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
to surround the Ukrainian forces, cut off their access to the outside world, and slowly bleed them out over time. This
allows Russia “to operate with near impunity while inflicting severe losses on the Ukrainian military and civilian popula-
tion.” 61
Either because of, in spite of, or unrelated to, the Western response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine – removing Russia
from the G-8, non-lethal weapons support for Ukraine, some targeted economic sanctions and visa bans and strong
rhetoric against Moscow – Russia began enacting new ways to project force beyond its borders. Specifically, it:

o Flew numerous sorties over NATO and Swedish airspace and sent naval vessels into NATO countries’

62

territorial waters

o Armed Iran with its S-300 air defense system 63

o Established an air and naval base in Syria and bombed Western-supported rebels in Syria 64

o Sold nuclear submarines to China and conducted naval exercises with China in the South China Sea 65

o Deployed nuclear-capable Iskandr air defense missiles in Kaliningrad, 66 and

o Made threats against the Baltic states in particular, and NATO in general, and placed more weight on using

nuclear weapons in its defense strategy. 67
ASSIGNMENTS:
1. Complete a matrix outlining the interests, desired outcomes, actions and messages you would take as the
following actors: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO/EU members. This will be a brainstorming
exercise to flesh out the various – and competing – national interests and foreign policy goals of the countries
involved.
2. Role-play two separate scenarios:
a. Role-play the members of the U.S. national security team in a Principals’ Committee meeting [at the Sec-
retary level – it is essentially a Cabinet meeting of the relevant heads of Departments and agencies, but with-
out the President] in Washington to devise a new policy on Russia, given its ongoing behavior in Ukraine
(and Syria and elsewhere). Once assigned your roles, you will draft one-to-two pages of notes for yourselves
for that role, defining what you believe the United States should do about Russia. A minimum of five role
players (National Security Advisor, Secretaries of State, Commerce, and Defense, and CIA Director). Ad-
ditional actors could include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Attorney General, CJCS, the Ambassador to
the UN, and, serving as advisors in this instance, the Ambassadors to Russia, Ukraine, the EU, the OSCE,
NATO, or even Germany.
b. Role-play the OSCE Special Advisor for Ukraine, the EU High Representative for External Affairs (the
person who is essentially the EU’s Foreign Minister), or the Foreign Ministers of the following countries:
Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., Germany, France, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, etc., with the goal of outlining a new
political settlement in Ukraine, either to implement or move beyond the Minsk agreements. Again, a mini-
mum of five role players is needed.
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER:
• What are Ukraine’s interests and objectives?
• What are Russia’s interests and objectives?
• What are the separatists’ interests and objectives?
• What are the interests of secondary actors? For example Germany’s? The United States?