Case Study # 0517-02 PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
• If “ punch and counter-punch ” leads to legitimate claims of victimization on both sides , is there a distinct right and wrong ?
• Back to Russia , does keeping Ukraine destabilized satisfy its interests ? If you believe in Russia ’ s alleged historical fear of encirclement from the West and given that NATO is already on its borders with the Baltic States , is it understandable for Russia to want to keep Ukraine at the least as a neutral buffer state , if not under some level of Russian control ?
• As NATO and EU member states , particularly those on Russia ’ s borders , what do you do about Russia and Ukraine ?
• What would a geo-strategic policy maker do , considering that the West needs Russia in a broad variety of other contexts ? What are they ?
• As the U . S . National Security Advisor , or Secretary of State or Defense , or other member of the national security team , what would you do about Russia ?
• How do Western responses to Russia ’ s behavior in Ukraine affect geo-strategic relations ? Who else might be affected ? How ? What might be their likely reaction and how do we take that into account ?
• For example , what message does a perceived ineffective response to Russia ’ s assertive actions send to China or Iran ? Look at their current actions in the South China Sea and the Persian Gulf , respectively . Are these actions interconnected ?
Notes :
1
Preliminary report . Crash involving Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 flight MH17 . The Dutch Safety Board , 17 July 2014 , accessed 14 January 2017 : http :// www . dca . gov . my / wp-content / uploads / 2015 / 02 / Preliminary-Report-MH17 . pdf .
2
Mariano Castillo . “ Alleged phone call : ‘ We have just shot down a plane ’. CNN , 18 July 2014 , accessed 17 January 2017 : http :// www . cnn . com / 2014 / 07 / 18 / world / europe / ukraine-mh17-intercepted-audio /.
3
‘ Russian troops in Ukraine ? Got any proof ?’ Putin ’ s best quotes from French media talk . RT News , 6 June 2014 ; accessed 20 April 2017 : https :// www . rt . com / news / 163676-putin-ukraine-french-us /.
4
State Department-sponsored Telephonic Press Briefing by U . S . Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt and U . S . Permanent Representative to the OSCE Daniel Baer , July 29 , 2016 , posted on the U . S . Embassy Kyiv website . Accessed on October 19 , 2016 .
5
The “ little green men ” were dubbed as such by Ukrainian authorities and the Western media . They are Russian special operations soldiers and intelligence officers “ on vacation ” [ as claimed by Putin ] wearing green uniforms without insignia . Max Boot , “ How to Wage Cyber War on the Kremlin ,” “ Foreign Policy ” magazine on-line , December 13 , 2016 ; accessed Dec 27 , 2016 .
6
Statement by the President of Ukraine during the General Debate of the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly . Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the United Nations , 21 September 2016 , accessed 8 January 2017 : http :// ukraineun . org / en / press-center / 106-statement-by-the-president-of-ukraine-during-the-general-debate-of-the-71-st-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly /.
7
Grove , Thomas and Warren Strobel . “ Special Report : Where Ukraine ’ s separatists get their weapons ”. Reuters , 29 July 2014 , accessed 21 April 2016 : http :// www . reuters . com / article / us-ukraine-crisis-arms-specialreport-idUSKBN- 0FY0UA20140729 .
8
Amos C . Fox and Andrew J . Rossow . “ Making Sense of Russian Hybrid Warfare : A Brief Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian War .” The Land Warfare Papers No . 112 , March 2017 , the Institute of Land Warfare of the Association of the United States Army , p 5 .
9
Roman Goncharenko . “ Ukraine under pressure to implement terms of Minsk peace agreement .” Deutsche Welle , 10 May 2016 , accessed 18 December 2016 : http :// www . dw . com / en / ukraine-under-pressure-to-implement-terms-ofminsk-peace-agreement / a-19247668 .
10
Remarks to the press by Ambassador Vitaly Churkin , Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the