Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 23

reform following peacekeeping operations is less than encouraging. Roland Paris criticizes the peacekeeping operations of the 1990s for their narrow focus on elections and economic liberalization, which lacked the necessary commitment to institution building to make reform “stick.”40 Studies on the effect of peacekeeping on democratization are somewhat sparse. Some evidence suggests that outright victory, specifically rebel victory, improves the prospect for democracy, but these results are heavily disputed and any positive impact might be many years in coming. Does peacekeeping lead to a more democratic future for post-war societies? Given that most peacekeeping operations are designed with democratic reform in mind, it is surprising that there is little evidence that peacekeeping interventions have any effect on democracy. Most authors who examine the effect of peacekeeping on democratization find no strong or consistent effect in the short- or long-term.41 Fortna finds that when compared to cases where wars end without outside involvement, peacekeeping has no significant effect on the quality of democracy in the year following the war, three years out, or five years after the conflict ends.42 Similarly, at the ten-43 and twenty-44year mark, countries that received peacekeeping operations are no more democratic than those countries that did not receive peacekeeping operations.45 Madhav Joshi finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between peacekeeping and democratization and his measure of democracy is different—relying on a three-point shift in subcomponents of an index on institutional openness to represent a democratic transition.46 The balance of the evidence, however, suggests that there is no clear relationship between peacekeeping and democratization. 16