Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 12

outcomes of a potential war between them. Not only are the two sides uncertain about the actual distribution of capabilities between them, but the level of resolve their opponent has in pressing its claim is also unclear. War provides a mechanism for the two sides to gather information about one another’s capabilities and resolve, with war ending when the two sides can determine the likely outcome of the confrontation. By stopping fighting, however, peacekeeping interrupts this flow of information, leaving uncertainty about who would win were the conflict to continue and what the terms of settlement might be. Peacekeeping can also undermine the conflict resolution process in a second fashion. Negotiation and mediation expert I. William Zartman points to the important role of what he terms as a “hurting stalemate,” a condition in which conflicting sides reach a point in which neither can defeat the other militarily and impose its own terms of settlement, and each continues to bear unsustainable costs.10 Intense conflict can provide the means by which these costs are imposed upon the warring sides as each continues to experience casualties and the loss of resources devoted to the conflict. In turn, as a hurting stalemate develops, the pain produced by it can create incentives for the belligerents to look for a way out of their conflict, making them more amenable toward peace settlements. The deployment of peacekeepers to a conflict, while potentially serving to help manage the conflict, also lessens the “ripeness” of a conflict for a peace agreement. In dampening the level of conflict between the belligerents, peacekeepers also reduce the conflict costs faced by the two sides. At the same time, the presence of peacekeepers can reduce the time pressure placed on the combatants to reach a settlement.11 From this 5