Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018 | Page 44

COVER STORY
SURV EY
MODI STILL ALON
SANJAY
KUMAR
O
Popularity surveys suggest no opposition leader on his or her own
NE big political question that is
being asked these days is who could
challenge PM Narendra Modi in
2019. All opposition parties are
making desperate e ­ fforts to form an
anti-Modi front at the national level
to prevent a BJP victory. There are hurdles,
of course, in moving forward to form this
alliance, the biggest being the question of
who would lead it. The political parties may
be still contemplating on this issue, but the
answer seems to be quite straightforward:
among the leaders of the o
­ pposition parties,
there is nobody who can pose a challenge
to Modi in 2019 solely on the basis of his or
her own popularity.
Even though there has been some decline
in Modi’s popularity, as is evident from
recent surveys conducted by the Centre for
the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi,
he still remains far more popular than any
leader of the opposition parties.
At the moment, there is no match
to his popularity at the national level,
though some leaders of regional parties
are at least equally popular, if not more,
in their ­respective states (see graphics 1
and 2). Such leaders, however, can pose
no threat to Modi at the national level as
their ­popularity does not travel beyond the
borders of their own state.
The findings of the surveys clearly indi-
cate that the qualities people like in Modi
are those of a good administrator with an
ability to provide good governance, besides
good oratory, honesty, experience, decisive-
ness and hard work. Many of the leaders
belonging to the opposition parties—for
instance, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee,
Naveen Patnaik, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi
Yadav or Arvind Kejriwal—may also be seen
as possessing some of these qualities, but
only by voters in their own states.
The findings indicate that Rahul Gandhi
is more popular than Modi in the southern
states, but trails behind him by huge mar-
1
Modi is still the most preferred for the PM’s post, but his favourability
has declined drastically in the last one year
24
28
May
2014
17
1
19
16
2
1
37
Jan
2018
3 3
2
3
44
9
17
19
18
May
2017
36
May
2018
19
3 3
20
24
34
“If Lok Sabha elections are held
tomorrow, who would you prefer to
see as the prime minister?”
This question was asked in an ­
open-ended manner and no choices
were offered to the respondent.
Figures are in percentage.
Sample sizes: May 2014: 22,295;
May 2017: 11,373; Jan 2018: 14,336;
May 2018: 15,859
Narendra Modi
Mayawati
Rahul Gandhi
Mamata Banerjee
Other leaders
No response
Source: National Election Study 2014 and Mood
of the Nation Surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS
Barring Mamata Banerjee, none of the state leaders is more popular than
Modi in their respective state on the PM question
Bengal
Odisha
27
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi 14
Mamata Banerjee
34
Naveen Patnaik 10
UP
Bihar
33
Narendra Modi
Akhilesh & Mulayam
Mayawati
52
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi
21
20
Nitish Kumar 12
16
Delhi
AP
49
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi 13
19
K. Chandrashekhar Rao 8
23
36
N. Chandrababu Naidu 5
Telangana
Rahul Gandhi
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi
Arvind Kejriwal 19
Narendra Modi
53
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi 14
30
“If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow,
who would you prefer to see as the prime
minister?” This question was asked in an ­
open-ended manner and no choices were
offered to the respondent. Figures are in
percentage.
Source: Mood of the Nation Survey
(May 2018) conducted by Lokniti-CSDS
Graphic by SAJI C.S.
44 OUTLOOK 18 June 2018