Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018

O PI NION BADRI NARAYAN CHARISMA VS THE COLLECTIVE The 2019 story is being scripted around new socio-political alliances against Modi R own, these alliances would be more of a symbolic message in EMARKABLE changes are taking place in electoral support of mahagathbandhan politics. There are also whispers politics in India. The NDA versus UPA kind of group- of the grand old party trying to form an alliance with the Aam ings have been around for a while, but a new polarisa- Aadmi Party for the Delhi and Haryana elections. tion is under way, which is along the lines of Modi The gathbandhan for 2019 may emerge in two ways. One is versus the united opposition, or the BJP versus non- through all opposition parties supporting strong candidates on BJP parties. This is happening because many parties a seat-by-seat basis, and the other is the Mamata Banerjee for- in the opposition at the national level as well as anti-BJP mula—the entire opposition supporting the regional party that political groups at the state level see the BJP as a threat to is stronger in the given state. The Mamata formula may be not their very existence for one or the other reason. The BJP is acceptable to others because many parties have strong presence expanding in almost every state and intervening at every level in the same state—for instance, both the CPI(M) from local bodies to Parliament. and the Congress in West Bengal. However, The saffron party has, in fact, emerged to take seat-sharing among opposition parties in vari- over the kind of space only the Congress used to ous states may be possible. occupy earlier, comprising almost the entire The formation of a mahagathbandhan against field of electoral politics. No wonder the BJP’s the BJP for 2019 is clearly on the cards then, but mega-emergence is producing its counter-poli- there are many challenges, too, that are quite tics, bringing many local and regional groups visible in the process. Being an all-India party closer to the Congress. Moreover, many local and that still has presence across many Indian regional interests are compelling the regional states, the Congress will emerge as the leading parties to join the anti-BJP mahagathbandhan partner. So the political war of 2019 is likely to (grand alliance). Disenchantment against the PTI take place between such a mahagathbandhan programmes, policies and governance of the and the BJP led by Narendra Modi and Amit BJP-led NDA government is also creating a Many local Shah. All parties involved in the process have canvas on which the coming together of the interests their own social base that brings them votes. anti-BJP opposition has been made possible. are forcing These social bases too may come together and The mahagathbandhan experiment emerged combine with each other through the maha during the 2015 Bihar assembly election, gath- the regional gathbandhan of the parties, building an impres- ered momentum with the alliances formed in parties to join sive social alliance of castes and communities the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls this year in hands against against the BJP’s strategy to form a broader Uttar Pradesh, and was further reinforced in 14 the BJP. Hindu alliance. This means the opposition will recent bypolls (for 10 assembly and four parlia- pose the reality of castes and the sense of reg mentary seats) across the country. Karnataka ional identity against the BJP, besides evoking also saw anti-BJP parties come together after the disillusionment against the BJP-led central government. the assembly election to form a government led by H.D. Recent elections have shown that defeating the BJP is Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal (Secular). Leaders of many possible if the opposition manages to avoid the division of national and regional parties attended Kumaraswamy’s oath non-BJP votes. The BJP, therefore, needs to formulate ceremony in a show of solidarity. micro-strategies at the local and regional levels to counter the We are clearly seeing an ongoing process of the formation of a anti-BJP mobilisation. It also needs to disseminate informa- mahagathbandhan against the BJP for the forthcoming assem- tion about the work its government is doing for the poor and bly elections as well as the 2019 general elections. In fact, in other marginals. Despite the disenchantment with his govern- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where assembly ment, PM Modi’s campaigning retains the power to draw votes polls are due this year, the Congress is likely to ally with regional into the BJP’s kitty. The 2019 election, then, seems primed to forces and parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party on a few seats be shaped as Modi versus others, with his charisma on one side, where they have some presence. As the Congress is pereceived and the new caste and social alliances on the other. O to be strong enough in these states to challenge the BJP on its 18 June 2018 OUTLOOK 43

Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018 | Page 43