COVER STORY
three-four nodal points will emerge , with south ( India ) playing a particularly crucial role .”
Odd Man Out Nitish Kumar , the one man who could have been a consensus candidate , must be ruing his error of judgement now . His return to the BJP-led NDA has not worked out well at the relationship level to begin with — witness the acrimony over the special status issue . And politically , it was well-nigh suicidal for him — the embarrassing loss for the alliance to the Rashtriya Janata Dal in the Jokihat bypoll , which pitchforked Lalu ’ s son Tejashwi to centrestage , gave notice of that . “ Nitish , at one time , was considered the main challenger to Modi , but after allying with the BJP to continue his government in Bihar , he has run himself out of any contention ,” rues a senior JD ( U ) leader . “ He would have definitely been the frontrunner among the various challengers to Modi .”
At the other end of the spectrum are veterans such as former President Pranab Mukherjee , NCP leader Sharad Pawar and even former prime minister H . D . Deve Gowda , all of whom could be thrust into the spotlight if the opposition runs out of choices for a man to lead the alliance . And despite his controversial decision to attend an RSS meet in Nagpur , there are already murmurs of Pranab playing a key role behind the scenes to ensure the opposition flock stays together .
Pawar is also said to be playing the role of elderly statesman and a guiding force , pointing out to the opposition leaders that the current political environment in the country is similar to that in post-Emergency 1977 , when a united opposition took on and defeated the Congress .
“ The BJP imparted a larger-than-life cult image to Modi . Even now they are projecting him as a lone lion in the jungle versus the rest . This is not going to work now .”
Jayant Chaudhary Rashtriya Lok Dal
STRENGTHS
● Carries forwad his father Laloo Prasad Yadav ’ s legacy as he calls ‘ Laloovaad ’ a ‘ vichaardhara ’ ( ideology )
● Proved himself to be an able administrator as the deputy chief minister of Bihar
● Ability to connect with the masses
OPPORTUNITIES
● Capable of consolidating Laloo ’ s traditional Muslim- Yadav vote-bank , amounting to 30 per cent of the voters
● Yadavs feel let down by Nitish Kumar for abandoning Laloo and Muslims for going with the BJP
● If the RJD gets 25 of the 40 seats , he ’ ll have a strong claim
Tejashwi Prasad Yadav 28
Leader of Opposition in Bihar Legislative Assembly
Rashtriya Janata Dal leader
WEAKNESSES
● The shadow of corruption with the cases he inherited from his father ; he was named in the FIR in the IRCTC hotels scam
● His youth and lack of experience may go against him
THREATS
● With Laloo in jail , the biggest draw in campaigning would be missing
● Sibling rivalry may raise its head if Tej Pratap decides to play spoilsport and stake claim to Laloo ’ s legacy
BJP Jitters ? The ruling party had once derided the opposition alliance as the coming together of animals such as “ mongoose , snakes , dogs and cats during floods ”. Over the past few months , the narrative has changed though Amit Shah still insists the opposition is running “ an agenda to defeat PM Modi ”. But with the loss in Kairana , the Modi-led government lost its majority in Parliament , and things are beginning to look a wee serious . ( It ’ s down to 271 seats , making it uncomfortably rely on its allies .) From working towards being the largest party in the world , the pattern of discomfiting losses of late has forced the BJP to recalibrate its strategy .
Addressing the media on the government ’ s fourth anniversary on May 26 , Shah gave a peep into this changing strategy . Though he tried to downplay the unity bid , saying the SP-Congress alliance had failed miserably in the 2017 UP assembly election , Shah said : “ We still have a year to go for elections . We will devise a strategy to cross a 50 per cent voteshare in UP and defeat any combine ,” he said .
The recent bypoll results also coincided with other developments like the Telugu Desam Party leaving the NDA fold and other allies , including Shiv Sena , LJP , RSLP , SAD and JD ( U ), expressing discomfort with the BJP , setting the alarm bells ringing within the party . The party has made an effort to reach out to its sulking allies , knowing well that it is not likely to get a majority on its own and may need their support .
Shah has already had a meeting with LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan , and also reached out to Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray and Akali Dal patriarch Parkash Singh Badal . Allies like the Sena have never bothered to mince their words about what they call the BJP ’ s “ high-handed ” attitude towards smaller allies .
But the opposition has a sense of direction now . If the ‘ face ’ is not handy , it will prefer to speak about the issues instead . “ The message to the BJP is clear . People are not interested in communal issues like Jinnah and have economic concerns as exemplified by ganna ( sugarcane ),” says Jayant Chaudhary , reprising his by-now famous coinage . “ The BJP had imparted a larger-than-life cult image to Modi . Even now they are projecting him as a lone lion in the jungle versus the rest . This is not going to work now ,” he adds . O
42 OUTLOOK 18 June 2018