Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018 | Page 41

A CROWD OF FACES (from left) Sushil Kumar Shinde, Sharad Pawar,
N. Chandrababu Naidu, Pranab Mukherjee, Meira Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal
DARK HORSES
The prospects of the PM aspirants waiting in the wings
by Pragya Singh
M
AKING someone President of the republic is usually a good
way to try and take someone out of politics. But then, how
do you take the politics out of someone like Pranab Muk-
herjee? Trust the Congress veteran to have sensed a kind
of vacuum in the leadership space—and bingo, he makes a canny
move on the chessboard. And with that, talk is sparked off about
who will be the next prime minister.
When Pranab addresses RSS functionaries on June 7 in Nagpur,
he will straddle the very sharp ideological divide that is reshaping
politics before 2019. The question is, while political watchers
are predicting the BJP’s isolation, why is Pranab
flirting with the RSS? The answer, that in politics
dialogue must never break, is one not many in
Congress are buying.
The other explanation is that Pranab is courting
the RSS so they might prop him up as PM! His
experience, negotiating skills and acceptability
within industry circles are obvious pluses. Trouble
is, the Congress has decided to be part of a
coalition to counter the Modi juggernaut. “In this
situation, what Pranab says at the RSS function,
or what kind of dialogue happens there, does not
really matter,” says a veteran Left politician.
Senior Congress leaders like P. Chidambaram
have appealed to Pranab to speak in Nagpur only as an ideological
opponent of the RSS. But the Pranab-as-PM gambit hinges on the
presumption that the 2019 result will be so tantalisingly poised
that the Congress may become unwilling to negotiate with a
front. In that case, it is argued, every other formation would find
Pranab acceptable. However, unlike 1996, when it gave outside
support to the United Front, the Congress is willing to join a
coalition in 2019.
Nevertheless, as in all previous instances of coalition formation,
including 1989 when V.P. Singh became PM, dark horses add a
dash of zing. And it’s not just the seats a party has that swing
things. H.D. Deve Gowda was PM with only 16 Lok Sabha seats
from Karnataka, thanks to support from heavyweights Laloo
Prasad Yadav, M. Karunanidhi, Biju Patnaik and others.
Also, the Congress is positioning Rahul Gandhi as Modi’s chief
opponent. If the party fares poorly and Rahul is ruled out, West
Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and the BSP’s Mayawati are in the
wings—stated contenders both, not dark horses. But take Andhra
Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu. “It will be a big deal for south
Indian states to have a PM from the south,” says a veteran leader.
“Such decisions are based on a realistic assessment in which
Lok Sabha seats have not been a priority,” says the leader, who
has played a role in three previous coalition formations. “Today
is a new situation and new political accommodations are taking
place. Nobody thought Deve Gowda would become PM, but right
now is too early to judge who it will be.”
The argument against Naidu is that “until
yesterday he was with the BJP”. Yet, he has
ideologically never aligned with Hindutva, plus
his son Nara Lokesh may be ready to control the
Telugu Desam Party in the state.
“Even Sonia Gandhi had tried for the PM’s post
and that is when Manmohan Singh emerged as
the choice. So we will have to wait,” says anot­
her leader. Former MP Meira Kumar, whose ‘Dalit
face’ status was tried in the presidential polls,
is another possibility. She would also suppress
Mayawati who, according to one Congress leader,
has “perennial” prime ministerial ambitions—and
has the voters to back her up.
Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is a strong personality who
has stood up to the BJP with an authentic persona and alterna-
tive politics. He, like Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, straddles
tradition and modernity, a key facet in electoral politics. Even
Manmohan Singh represents that bridge—Rahul does not. But
whether Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party can build bridges with other
parties will be the question.
Nitish Kumar has squandered, to all appearances, his shot at
eing the dark horse. “After his recent switch to the NDA, it would
not be easy to build trust, though he himself may be uncomforta-
ble with the BJP today,” says an RJD leader. How steeped in the
RSS should the next PM be is a question before the BJP camp.
To dark horse Nitin Gadkari, there exists a foil: External Affairs
Minister Sushma Swaraj. O
It’s not just the seats
a party has that swing
things. H.D. Deve Gowda
was prime minister
with only 16 Lok Sabha
seats from Karnataka.
18 June 2018 OUTLOOK 41