COVER STORY
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Naveen Patnaik 71
Four-time CM of Odisha
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H . D . Deve Gowda 85
Former prime minister
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Biju Janata Dal chief |
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Janata Dal ( Secular ) president |
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STRENGTHS
● His clean , secular and development-oriented image
● A master strategist despite having been a reluctant starter
● Showed sharp acumen in ending alliance with the BJP in 2009 to emerge as a strong regional force that even the 2014 Modi wave failed to dent
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WEAKNESSES
● He is not fluent with Odia , making him the only CM in India who doesn ’ t speak the regional language of the state
● Image of being a reclusive , uncommunicative and distant politician
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STRENGTHS
● Image of a humble farmer , working his way up
● Rapport with regional leaders like N . Chandrababu Naidu and Mayawati was on show at son Kumaraswamy ’ s swearing-in .
● Ability to negotiate seen by his contribution to the 1997 Nagaland ceasefire agreement
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WEAKNESSES
● At 85 , he may be considered a little old to be PM
● Since 2004 , the highest seat tally of the Janata Dal ( Secular ) in the Lok Sabha has been three , and the political weight might not add up even in 2019
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OPPORTUNITIES
● To thwart the BJP ’ s aggressive push , he has stepped up his connect with the people through various welfare schemes and social media presence
● Said to be in talks with Mamata Banerjee and K . Chandrashekhar Rao to be a part of a united front
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THREATS
● Rumours about his health issues may make it difficult for him
● Corruption cases against some of his party members may come up to embarrass him
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OPPORTUNITIES
● His age lends him the image of an elder statesman , who may be acceptable as a consensus candidate when push comes to shove
● His party , with less than one-sixth of the seats in Karnataka , was the speedbreaker that slowed down the BJP ’ s southward march
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THREATS
● Open to charge of nepotism as he now wants his grandson Prajwal to contest from his Hassan Lok Sabha seat
● The tenuous tie-up with Congress in Karnataka may not last , queering the 2019 pitch
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to maintain her supremacy in the state , keeping all other parties , including the Congress , the CPI ( M ) and especially the BJP , in check . BSP chief Mayawati has never hidden her ambitions . What about Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik , an astute leader with a proven track record ? But each one also carries some baggage ( See leader ’ profiles ).
Next problem : will Mamata accept Mayawati as the PM candidate ? Will Akhilesh perfect his UP formula — making off with his pile from among those 80 seats — and then cede ground to Naveen ? The Odisha CM is one of the cussedly mysterious pieces in the jigsaw — he still hasn ’ t shed his ambivalence and is sending out confusing signals . He not only missed a dinner for the opposition leaders , but also did not attend the Karnataka swearing-in ceremony . The only consolation here for each of them is perhaps that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has ruled himself out of contention !
For the Congress , the seat tally will be crucial . “ If the Congress wins over 100 seats on its own ,
then Rahul can stake claim to the PM ’ s chair ,” says a senior Congress leader . However , if he is not acceptable to , say , a Mamata or a Mayawati , the Congress may be forced to accept a consensus candidate . “ It ’ s these kind of contradictions and personal ambitions that may come in the way of opposition unity . The SP and the BSP are already quibbling over seat-sharing . Though Rahul often goes to ( NCP leader ) Sharad Pawar for advice , they too still have
40 OUTLOOK 18 June 2018
“ It will be 31 separate battles for the BJP in 31 states ,” says TMC ’ s Derek O ’ Brien . “ 2019 should be a sum of state elections .”
unresolved issues ,” the leader says .
The viability of its challenge will be on test in the assembly polls in Rajasthan , Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that account for 65 Lok Sabha seats . Polls are slated in the three states this year . The Congress will also play a crucial role in states such as Karnataka and Maharashtra where it can combine with the JD ( S ) and the NCP , respectively . Together , the two states send 76 MPs to Lok Sabha .
Since not antagonising any potential partner will be crucial , could there be an alternate formula ? “ It will be 31 separate battles for the BJP in 31 states ,” says Derek O ’ Brien , Rajya Sabha MP and Trinamool Congress spokesperson . “ The 2019 elections should be a sum of state elections … fought in the idiom and language , and with issues and themes , of individual states .” Noted sociologist Shiv Visvanathan too believes it ’ s to the advantage of the opposition parties that they don ’ t have a face to take on Modi . “ This might work better for them . As of now , the opposition doesn ’ t
seem to have a strategy , character or brains . It ’ s a default selection of grouses and collection of grouches ,” he says .
Going state-wise is the only option the opposition has , Visvanathan concedes . “ Decentralisation is their only chance . They can ’ t take on Modi in a presidential-style elections . His media build-up of Modi is tremendous . State-wise battles give it a completely different dynamics ,” he says , adding , “ As things develop ,