Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018 | Page 45

E AT THE TOP
can challenge Modi in 2019. Here are the implications.
gins in all other ­regions (see graphic 4).
What makes the task of judging who could
lead the opposition—or who is best suited
to challenge Modi in 2019—very tough is
the lack of clear parameters for judging the
ability or quality of leadership. The only
qualities ass­essed are popularity and the
ability to pull votes for the party across
reg­ions and social groups. Even those are
not easy to figure out.
There is hardly any science or arithmetic
that could help us judge leadership q
­ ualities
with a degree of certainty and hence there
is no option but to rely on the findings
of surveys. And the survey thermometer
indicates that Modi has a national appeal
to a great extent, and that he enjoys popu-
larity in varying degrees in different states
and regions, with hardly any match to his
popularity at the national level.
G
IVEN this scenario, I think the opposi-
tion parties may find it extremely dif-
ficult to choose a candidate who could
challenge Modi at the national level. He
can only be challenged by a collective but
decentralised leadership, keeping in mind
the state as the unit of electoral contest.
The leader who is popular in a given state
should be able to challenge Modi there, and
leaders of other parties should be willing to
accept his or her leadership in that state.
While the opposition parties may find it
very difficult to work out this leadership
question at such a micro level, the least they
could do is to allow a regional party leader
who seems to be popular in a particular
state to challenge Modi in that state. The
question of all-India leadership can be
discussed or debated best only after 2019,
when all the opposition leaders would be
willing to accept the leadership of the leader
of the party that wins the largest number of
seats, in case that situation arises O
(The writer is director of the Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies, Delhi)
3
Rahul is on par with Modi
in terms of likeability; in
fact, Rahul is also disliked less
9
Wrong Parking Ki Ulti Aadat
Ko Badal Daalo.
Apnao Seedhi Aadat
WITH
12
43
36
11
14
43
32
Like him
Don’t like him
Neither like him nor dislike him
No response
Questions asked: 1) Some people like
Rahul Gandhi as a leader and some
don’t like him. What about you? Do
you like Rahul Gandhi or do you not
like him? 2) Some people like Naren-
dra Modi as a leader and some don’t
like him. What about you? Do you
like Modi or do you not like him?
Figures are in percentage.
4
Rahul has greater
favourability than Modi in
the south; elsewhere, Modi still
has a comfortable lead
41
38
37
33
28
18
17
East
West and North
India Central India India
Narendra Modi
20
South
India
Rahul Gandhi
Figures are in percentage.
Source: Mood of the Nation Survey
(May 2018) conducted by Lokniti-CSDS
18 June 2018 OUTLOOK 45
RE D GL ASS DO O R F INISH
B OT TOM M O UNT E D R E F RIGE RATO R
India, ab
SEEDHE KI
AADAT
DAAL LO!
2017