by political parties and carried out by
pollsters specifically allied to these parties
are common in established democracies
such as the USA and UK.
Creating narratives: Published opinion
polls can either be used or distorted to
provide evidence of a party or candidate’s
overwhelming popularity or the risk
of their defeat. Polls influence voters’
behavior even in mature democracies.
Addressing issues of concern: Polls on
social and economic issues can be used
to highlight citizens’ problems in their
areas and result in the necessary policy
interventions required to adequately solve
them.
Clearly, the importance of proper,
scientific and consistent opinion polling
by qualified and reputable pollsters cannot
be gainsaid. Given the huge amounts
of interest they generate in Kenya
(particularly around periods when the
country is faced with critical governance
events such as elections and referenda), it
is not inconceivable that every so often,
some misguided elements might be
tempted to publish their own political
opinion polls, the fact that they are
Opinion polling remains a critical ingredient
in the advancement of Kenya’s nascent de-
mocracy and social development along with
strong and independent government insti-
tutions, a vibrant and free press, as well as
an informed citizenry.
completely unscientific notwithstanding.
That is their prerogative; we do after all
live in a somewhat free country.
What we in the industry take great
exception to is the alarming trend in
which shadowy interlocutors (who it
can only be assumed are working at the
behest of various political actors) publish
fake opinion polls with fanciful and
laughable results attributed to any one of
the country’s three main pollsters.
This is quite unfortunate, as it casts the
pollsters in bad light by inflicting severe
reputational damage.
Crucially, it also denies the public the
opportunity to carefully interrogate and
exhaustively discuss the results of properly
conducted opinion polls.
It is time to call out the purveyors of
these fake polls. Left unchecked, this
unfortunate practice has the potential
to irreversibly undermine the public’s
confidence in opinion polling, which in
turn is likely to have ramifications for
the country’s democratic growth and
governance prospects.
Walter Nyabundi is the Research
Manager for Loyalty Studies
& Special Projects at Infotrak
Research & Consulting. You can
commune with him on this or
related matters via mail at: Walter.
[email protected].
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