OPINION POLLS
Fake Opinion Polls
Threaten Kenya’s
Fragile Democracy
By Walter Nyabundi
A
n opinion poll is a series of
questions asked of a statistical
sample of a specified community
in order to represent or predict the
opinion of that community as a whole.
The results from opinion polls can be used
in a number of ways. In more advanced
markets, they have come to influence
what FMCG products people are offered,
the kinds of cars they can drive, the power
tools they can use for home improvements
and the programs that they can watch on
TV.
In Kenya, opinion polls have played an
important role in shaping perceptions
around politics for the better part of
the last fifty years or so. This began
with the end of the colonial era and
early post-independence period (the
first documented political opinion poll
in the country was conducted in 1961);
through the single party era; to the return
of multi-party politics in 1992; and to the
period since 1997 to date, during which
time democratic principles and practices
have been significantly entrenched. “unbiased” analyses of voters’ wishes or
the government’s performance on political
issues”.
While opinion polling is an emotive issue
the world over, here in Kenya the debate
around this topic often evokes sentiments
that only serve to profoundly underscore
the country’s deep social, political and
ethnic divisions. The reasons for this
may be rooted in the country’s turbulent
political past and the dismissive attitude
of successive governments to opinion
polling. Nonetheless, opinion polling remains a
critical ingredient in the advancement
of Kenya’s nascent democracy and social
development along with strong and
independent government institutions,
a vibrant and free press, as well as an
informed citizenry.
Charles Hornsby, who wrote extensively
on this subject, notes that “as a rule the
governing elites have had little interest
in such externally-determined statements
about their ability to deliver what the
voters want. Their control of the media
has also been such that until the 1990s
newspaper editors would not attempt
to nor would the government accept Public knowledge and entertainment:
The public is always interested in and
entertained by political issues.
What the industry take great exception
to is the alarming trend in which shadowy
interlocutors (who it can only be assumed
are working at the behest of various polit-
ical actors) publish fake opinion polls with
fanciful and laughable results attributed to
any one of the country’s three main poll-
sters. This is quite unfortunate, as it casts
the pollsters in bad light by inflicting severe
reputational damage.
82 MAL31/19 ISSUE
Political opinion polling particularly
serves the following purposes:
Investment: The need
outcome of elections in
government policies and
appropriate investment
great importance.
to predict the
order to predict
plans, and make
decisions is of
Civic Education: Political opinion polls
demystify the electoral and political
process by showing the weaknesses and
faults of parties, leaders and ideas thus
serving to open up debate and challenge
any attempts by the State to monopolize
decision-making.
Strategic planning by political parties:
Public and particularly private polls are
used to develop and reinforce campaign
messaging and get a sense of the public’s
attitude towards the issues dominating
public discourse. It is worth noting that
private opinion polls commissioned