VII. Urbanization Trends and Related Policies
VII. Urbanization Trends and Related Policies
A. Urbanization Trends
In addition,
Uzbekistan has
very few sizeable
urban centres.
Tashkent City
alone has 2.3
million official
residents, which
is nearly one
quarter of the
total urban
population
24
What do we know about current trends in urbanization? Available
data do not yet show a significant increase in the urban population. In
fact, between 1991 and 2005, the population in urban areas increased
by only 13.5%, while that in rural areas increased by almost 35%. Hence,
the share of the urban population in the total population declined from
40.3% to 36.3%. This is unusual, compared to global trends.
But there are plausible reasons to suspect that the size of the urban
population is currently underestimated. Many new urban settlers are
likely to remain registered by their mahallas 1 within their original rural
communities.
Because current limitations on resident permits in urban areas
(whether temporary or permanent) hamper migration to cities, informal
residency in urban or periurban areas is likely to rise.
Hence, though official statistics suggest that the urban population
represents a little over one-third of the total, unofficial estimates place
it closer to one-half, which would be much closer to urbanization rates
in semi-arid countries with similar levels of development, such as those
in the Middle East and North Africa.
In addition, highly populated rural districts characterized by small
average agricultural land size per household are increasingly shifting to
urban patterns through a process of ‘densification.’ This phenomenon
has been partially recognized officially through the recent re-
designation of more than 1,000 villages as ‘urban settlements.’
There are additional reasons to believe that the rate of urbanization
will continue to increase, if not accelerate. As previously indicated,
increasing numbers of younger workers are currently entering the
labour force. Meanwhile, employment opportunities in neighbouring
countries, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, are diminishing.
Furthermore, climate changes are likely to increase the share of
agricultural land that is unfit for cultivation. Uzbekistan is projected
to experience a water deficit. Currently, agriculture uses over 90% of
all available water (namely, 53.5 billion cubic meters per year of a total
of 56 billion cubic meters), and, by all accounts, uses it intensively and
inefficiently. Hence, coherent urban planning, land use management,
and policies for housing and basic infrastructure could significantly
influence how cities mitigate and adapt to climate change.