Addressing Urban Poverty in Uzbekistan in the Context of the Economic Crisis
VI. Some Major Demographic Trends
In the near term, demographic trends could be promising for
Uzbekistan— if it is able to generate sufficient employment. The share
of the working-age population has been growing. While this share was
49.1% in 1990, it had risen to 59.5%, or over 10 percentage points, by 2007
(Table 4).
If the economy of Uzbekistan is able to supply the rising number of
new entrants into the labour force with decent jobs, it could enjoy a
‘demographic dividend.’ The larger share of employed workers in the total
population could generate a higher income per person, since there would
be a correspondingly lower share of young and old dependants.
Table 4. Changing Demographic Conditions
1990 1995 2000 2007
Percentage of Working Age Population* 49.1% 49.6% 53.0% 59.5%
Percentage of Women of Childbearing Age* 23.4% 24.4% 26.1% 28.3%
Source: State Statistics Committee and Ministry of Labour and Social Protection.
* Relative to total resident population, end of year.
As long as
Uzbekistan
focuses, on
channeling
strategic
resources to
the energy and
fuel complex
and other such
capital-intensive
sectors, it will
not be able to
create sufficient
employment
opportunities
But this ‘demographic dividend’ is a prospect, not a guarantee. For
the medium term, there will be continuous pressure on the economy
to provide additional jobs. However, as long as Uzbekistan focuses
on channeling strategic resources to the energy and fuel complex
and other such capital-intensive sectors, it will not be able to create
sufficient employment opportunities.
In 1990, the share of women entering child-bearing age was only
23.4%, but, by 2007, that share had risen to 28.3%. Uzbekistan’s birth
rate, which had been in secular decline since the mid-1990s and caused
the current slow growth in the share of people under 16 years of age, is
thus set to rise again. This will presumably lead to an eventual increase
in the share of the total population under 16 years of age and could
depreciate the ‘demographic dividend.’
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