V. Internal and External Labour Migration
If economic
conditions
continue to be
depressed in
neighbouring
countries through
2010, then it is
highly likely that
internal labour
migration will
intensify within
Uzbekistan
22
be a continuing movement of migrant workers either into larger
cities, such as Tashkent, or abroad. Currently, though, the prospects
for migration abroad are bleak. Economic conditions are projected
to have worsened in 2009 in Russia and Kazakhstan, the two main
destinations of Uzbek migrants.
While remittances from Uzbek migrants abroad were booming
in the 2000s, reaching 10.7% of GDP in 2007, they began to decline
from such high levels in 2009. While they had begun averaging
13.3% of GDP in the first half of 2008, for example, they were down
to 8.6% of GDP in the first half of 2009.
A survey of registered Uzbek migrants in Russia suggests that the
number that had arrived in 2008 declined modestly between the first
half of the year and the second half. In the first half, there was a ‘stock’
of 120,000 arrivals, while, in the second half, there was a decline to
116,000. But there appeared to be a more dramatic reduction in the
outflow of new Uzbek migrants to Russia. In the first six months of
2009, only 12,000 new migrants left for Russia, compared to 68,000
during the fourth quarter of 2008.
If economic conditions continue to be depressed in neighbouring
countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan through 2010, then it is highly
likely that internal labour migration will intensify within Uzbekistan,
increasing pressure on urban labour markets and threatening to
substantially expand the urban informal sector.