https://joom.ag/X5je policy brief-psia-uzbekistan-eng_3 | Page 26

Addressing Urban Poverty in Uzbekistan in the Context of the Economic Crisis At the same time, the population has grown much more rapidly than the area of irrigated land. Consequently, as previously mentioned, , the hectares of irrigated land per person have declined from 0.22 to 0.12 (CER 2009a) over the past 25 years. And this trend is expected to continue, if not intensify. Hence, rural areas will presumably continue to send substantial numbers of surplus workers into the larger urban areas. Recent estimates suggest that the deteriorating state of agricultural land, in combination with the concentration of agricultural production in larger private farms, will increase the labour surplus in rural areas. Agricultural employment could fall from its current level of 3 million workers to 2 million in roughly the next 15 years, (CER 2009a). Satellite maps highlight another major challenge facing Uzbekistan: an unbalanced distribution of the population, with very dense networks of villages and cities in the fertile part of the country and very low population density in its arid regions. In the dense population areas, there consequently is intense competition between urban settlements and agriculture for available land. Another problem is that Uzbekistan has very few large urban centres. Tashkent City alone has 2.3 million official residents, which is nearly one-quarter of the total urban population. Other major urban centres, such as Namangan, Samarkand, Andijan and Bukhara, are much smaller. Effectively, Uzbekistan is a country with one large city and a large number of small cities. The growth of small and medium-sized cities, which were established during the Soviet era and were usually linked to major industrial enterprises, has been stagnant. Since very few Soviet- era industrial enterprises have survived the transition, the working populations in these cities have faced severe economic difficulties. In some ways, their economic prospects are worse than those found in small townships and village-like settlements, where the working population has retained at least some access to land. Urban poverty is consequently likely to be high in such settings. Thus, diversification of the economic base of Uzbek cities is becoming a major challenge urgently requiring attention. It is necessary to develop comprehensive policy papers on trends in urbanisation in Uzbekistan and the prospective mid- and long- term options for dealing with them It is important to dramatically improve research and monitoring capacities on urban issues. B. Policy Recommendations Related to Urbanization Following is a summary of some priority policy recommendations to address the increasingly important issues related to urbanization in Uzbekistan. 1) Develop comprehensive policy papers on trends in urbanization in Uzbekistan and the prospective mid- and long-term options for dealing with them. The aim would be to evaluate various mid- and long-term policy options for: ƒ ƒ Balancing the urban network with foreseen industrial and agricultural development; 25