https://joom.ag/X5je policy brief-psia-uzbekistan-eng_3 | Seite 14

Addressing Urban Poverty in Uzbekistan in the Context of the Economic Crisis
III. Economic Trends and Policies
A. Recent Economic Trends
The data show that Uzbekistan's gross domestic product is growing
at a rate of 8.1%, compared to 2008 (Table 1). Hence, Uzbekistan is
currently out-performing the IMF’s 2009 forecast.
The country’s industrial output, growing at 9%, is doing reasonably
well; its agricultural output has a 5.7% growth rate (year on year).
Table 1. Key Macroeconomic Indicators (% change year on year)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.2 7.4 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.0 8.1
Population 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7
GDP per capita 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 6.2 5.7 6.2 8.0 7.2 6.3
Industry 5.9 7.6 8.3 6.0 9.4 7.2 10.8 12.1 12.7 9.0
Agriculture 3.1 4.2 6.0 7.3 8.9 5.4 6.7 6.1 4.5 5.7
Exports 0.9 -2.9 -5.7 24.6 30.3 11.5 118.1 40.7 27.8 2.4
Capital Invest-
ment 1.0 4.0 3.6 4.8 7.3 5.7 28.3 24.8
9.3
25.8
Source: State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
If Uzbekistan
expects to sustain
growth of 7-8%
in 2010, it will
have to increase
its net exports to
non-CIS trading
partners. Since
Asia’s growth
appears to
be recovering
rapidly, this
region represents
a key market
for Uzbekistan’s
export expansion
Most ominously, the growth of Uzbekistan’s exports has dropped
precipitously, from a rate of 27.8% in 2008 (year on year) to only 2.4%
in 2009.
The reduction in exports has occurred across a broad range of
sectors, including cotton, chemical products, metals, machinery and
equipment, and services. These declines have been offset, to some
degree, by exports of energy and oil products (which have grown an
impressive 240%).
Regionally, Uzbekistan’s net exports to non-CIS countries have been
affected most: they have declined by 22.6% rate compared to 2008, as
its exports have fallen marginally and its imports have risen sharply. If
Uzbekistan expects to sustain growth of 7-8% in 2010, it will have to
increase its net exports to non-CIS trading partners. Since Asia’s growth
appears to be recovering rapidly, this region represents a key market
for Uzbekistan’s export expansion.
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