III. Economic Trends and Policies
Uzbekistan has
had the ‘fiscal
space’ to finance
an ambitious
investment
program. But
much of the
investment is
directed to a
narrow capital-
intensive
economic base,
which will
be unable to
generate the
future productive
employment
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009,
Uzbekistan’s trade has indeed become more diversified. For example, its
exports to Switzerland have skyrocketed, rising to 23.3% of Uzbekistan’s
total exports in the first quarter of 2009 (Table 2).
Trade turnover with China has also increased substantially, but most
of this has consisted of imports. In the first quarter of 2009, Uzbekistan’s
imports from China accounted for 22.8% of its total imports, while
Uzbekistan’s exports to China rose only marginally to 6.2% of its total
exports.
Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with the Republic of Korea is similar, with
imports from Korea accounting for 10.9% of Uzbekistan’s total imports
in early 2009 and only 1% of Uzbekistan’s exports were destined for
that country.
The precipitous drop in Uzbekistan’s exports during early 2009
would have taken a heavy toll on its economy had the government not
initiated a large counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus, equivalent to about
5% of GDP. Such a sizeable boost to investment in fixed capital was
mandated by the government’s new Anti-Crisis Program.
This investment, both public and private, has grown by 32.7%.
However, while investment has increased in such areas as educational
institutions, rural housing and roads, with a 32.5% growth in the
construction sector, three-quarters of the total investment in fixed
Table 2. Geographical Composition of Uzbekistan’s Exports
and Imports, % of Total, 2008–2009
Share
of Exports
1st Quarter
2008 Share
of Exports
1st Quarter
2009 Share
of Imports
1st Quarter
2008 Share
of Imports
1st Quarter
2009
CIS Countries 33.7 41.4 50.0 41.1
Russia 17.5 24.2 25.1 19.8
Kazakhstan 4.4 7.2 13.8 8.3
Ukraine 5.7 2.8 9.2 10.1
Non-CIS Countries 66.3 58.6 50.0 58.9
China 4.4 6.2 9.2 22.8
Republic of Korea 1.0 1.0 10.8 10.9
Iran 6.9 3.1 0.4 0.3
Turkey 7.8 2.3 2.3 2.5
Switzerland 4.3 23.3 0.7 0.6
Germany 0.9 0.4 5.4 4.9
Country
Source: CER (2009b)
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