II. Regional Impact of the Crisis
projected to rise to only 5% and that of the CIS to only 5.3%. Such a
slowdown in the growth rate in Russia, which peaked at 8.1% in 2007,
is certain to have a telling effect on the sustainability of Uzbekistan’s
current growth rate.
Nevertheless, there are some bright spots. The IMF notes that the
predicted impact of the declining growth in the Russian economy
on CIS countries could be mitigated by their potential for increased
trade and financial links with non-CIS countries. Uzbekistan is a prime
example of such a trend, since it has begun to expand its trade with
a number of countries in Asia and the Middle East, including China,
Turkey and Iran (see Figure 3). The prospects for Uzbekistan’s growth
depend importantly on such strategic diversification of its trade and
investment links.
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