POWER BROKERS
AND
THE
WINNER
IS...
We asked GRI analysts to nominate the people they think will have the biggest influence on
political risk - for good or ill - in 2018. Here are their top picks:
1. THE REFORMER
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is spearheading what GRI analyst Alex Damianou calls
'autocratic liberalization' in Saudi Arabia. In 2017, he forged ahead with Vision 2030
reforms, launched a controversial anti-corruption drive, and consolidated power - and he's only
just getting started. Watch out for the influence of his more aggressive approach to foreign policy.
2. THE STRATEGIST
Vladimir Putin has weathered the low oil price, sanctions, anti-corruption protests - and
apparently still found time to engineer the US elections and Brexit. Putin's Middle East play
should continue to be very interesting in 2018 - and of course, it's the year he is almost certain
to be re-elected President. Ryan Steele explains what this means for Russia on page 21.
3. THE EMINENCE GRISE
In 2017, Vox dubbed Robert Lighthizer "the most powerful Trump official you've never heard
of". Trump's Trade Representative, a staunch protectionist and China skeptic with decades as a
"fierce negotiator" under his belt, will have a big say on where NAFTA goes in 2018. But
Lighthizer has some unorthodox views on trade, effectively prioritising exporters over
consumers, and focusing on bilateral trade deficits while ignoring global context.
4. THE BANKER
Henrique Meirelles, Brazil's Minister of Finance and former central bank president, is the brains
behind Brazil’s economic recovery. Mereilles keeps edging closer to declaring candidacy in the
2018 presidential elections, where he would introduce much-needed centrism to a field
dominated by outliers (see page 12). He would favour a balanced budget, privatizations, and
reduction and simplification of taxes as well as pension reform.
5. THE THINKER
An unconventional pick, Professor Rory Medcalf's influence is in the realm of ideas. Head of the
National Security College at Australia National University, he coined the term 'Indo-Pacific' nearly
a decade ago, and sounded the alarm on Chinese influence in Australia's politics - two ideas that
are now being taken seriously in Washington and around the world. Take note, these days he
worries about transnational cyber threats and the destruction of the rules-based global order.
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