6. LABOR PARTY (ISRAEL)
Last July, Avi Gabbay took the Labor Party by storm. Despite his pro-business credentials, his strong
rhetoric risks alienating the left wing of the party along with Israeli Arabs. Not everyone is happy with
Labor’s new leadership, due to Gabbay’s religious outlook. As a result, 2018 could see Labor undergo a
dramatic transformation in a bid to win centrist and undecided voters. Early elections may present a new
opportunity for Labor in 2018, as Netanyahu faces multiple investigations and likely indictment.
7. DEMOCRATIC
UNION PARTY (SYRIA)
The US-backed, Kurdish PYD’s militia, the YPG (People’s Protection Units), dominates the Syrian
Democratic Forces coalition and has established its own zone of control stretching along the east side of
the Euphrates River. Damascus has expressed willingness to negotiate limited autonomy for Syria’s Kurds
- but Turkey views this as a threat, seeing PYD as linked to Turkey's domestic Kurdish militants, the PKK.
The PYD will be a key player to watch as the locus where interests collide: the regime, the Turks, Russia,
and the United States.
8. FUTURE MOVEMENT
(LEBANON)
The shocking exit, exile, and reinstatement of PM Saad Hariri in late 2017 marked a flurry of diplomatic
intrigue between Lebanon’s main pro-Western party and Saudi Arabia. Hariri and the Future Movement
will face an uphill battle in the Lebanese parliamentary elections in 2018. They are suffering from
declining support from Lebanon’s Sunnis, the party’s financial hardships, and uncertainty over Saudi
Arabia’s political support. The Movement's fate will be critical to the future of American and European
influence in Lebanon.
9. GOOD PARTY
(TURKEY)
Meral Aksener, a former Interior Minister and parliamentary speaker, founded the Iyi Party in 2017. She
aims to form a coalition of secular nationalists, liberals, and moderate conservatives to take hold of
Turkey’s political center. Rather than completely overhaul the country’s politics, she emphasises restoring
the rule of law and restoring ties with the West. Aksener is hoping to peel away AKP voters especially in
urban centres, and build a formidable opposition in the two years before the November 2019 elections.
10. FATAH
(THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES)
Questions surrounding Mahmoud Abbas’ health, Fatah’s leadership succession, and the Palestinian
Authority’s (PA) failure to hold elections since 2005 have been looming. One possibly positive development
was the reconciliation between Fatah and its long-time rival, Hamas, which runs the Gaza Strip. How Fatah
and Hamas move forward with joint-control over Gaza will be important in 2018. Abbas’ next moves on
Jerusalem are also critical; a violent and costly intifada is the last thing the PA needs. Fatah will likely turn
back to Arab partners, shunning the U.S. for a time, and further explore a budding friendship with Russia.
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