MENA
ALL TOMORROW ' S PARTIES
Islamist, nationalist, leftist, reformist, pro-Western and anti-Imperialist, protesting the ruling order or forging new coalitions- Chris Solomon presents the ten political parties that will have an impact on political risks in the Middle East in 2018.
1. ENNAHDA( TUNISIA)
A mainstream Islamist party that has seen success despite a climate of doubt around the future of political Islam in the region- and skepticism in secular Tunisia- Ennahda ' s view of religion as a vehicle for peace and justice, along with its close relationship with Turkey, will make it a key player in North Africa’ s political discourse. Expect it to be vocal on plans for unpopular economic reforms.
2. BREAD AND FREEDOM( EGYPT)
A small leftist party persecuted by the government, it ' s led by Khaled Ali, a human rights lawyer and political activist. Ali has announced he will run in the 2018 presidential elections. Though his chances are slim, his presence in the race could galvanise public dissatisfaction with the dismal state of the economy and continued problems with terrorism.
3. SADRIST MOVEMENT( IRAQ)
Once branded“ the most dangerous man in Iraq”, Shi‘ ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr remains a dynamic political force. A staunch nationalist, he calls for U. S. troops to be withdrawn, and is critical of Iran. Sadr rallies large-scale demonstrations to demand political reforms and protest corruption. In a key development for the balance of power in Iraq, he recently offered to disarm his militia and is currently exploring electoral alliances, including with the National Accord Party headed by Ayad Allawi.
4. SYRIAN SOCIAL NATIONALIST PARTY( SYRIA)
The SSNP has fought alongside Assad from the start of the civil war, and is part of the regime’ s“ tolerated opposition.” Staunchly secular and favored by sectarian minorities, the SSNP has forged a close relationship with Russia. Its leader, Ali Haidar, is State Minister for Reconciliation and frequently features in the Western press. The party will be sure to flex its ultra-nationalist credentials as a voice within the regime camp for maintaining Syria’ s territorial integrity in the face of Kurdish autonomy.
5. PATRIOTIC UNION OF KURDISTAN( IRAQ)
The PUK is a left-wing party that split from the Kurdistan Democratic Party( KDP) in the mid-1970s. Relations between the PUK and the KDP are tense over allegations that the PUK negotiated a quiet withdrawal of their forces ahead of Baghdad’ s capture of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The party has a close relationship with Iran and will use this to repair relations with Baghdad. In Iraqi Kurdistan’ s post-independence political landscape, it will seek to positions itself as a facilitator for access to oil pipelines.
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