MENA Turkey
ERDOGAN UPS THE ANTE
In April 2017, the narrow victory of the‘ yes’ camp in the constitutional referendum paved the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’ s plan to install a presidential system of government after the 2019 elections. Leo Kabouche explains how 2018 will set the stage for that transition.
Turkey’ s 2018 political agenda will be shaped by three ballots that are due in 2019: the municipal elections in March, and the parliamentary and presidential elections in November. Following these votes, the current parliamentary system will be replaced by an executive presidential system of government that will significantly increase President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’ s powers. Among the changes introduced by the constitutional reform, the President will become head of the executive as well as head of state. Erdogan will be able to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree.
Erdogan’ s party, the ruling religiously conservative Justice and Development Party( AKP) will likely win the elections and remain in power until 2024. Although the AKP suffers from a popularity deficit since the referendum, Erdogan still has considerable political capital. Moreover, it is likely the government will use the state of emergency law to intensify its policy of arbitrary arrests in the run-up of the 2019 elections. This will result in the imprisonment of political opponents at home and the implementation of clandestine networks to target dissidents abroad.
The political opposition is too disunited and marginalized to pose a serious threat to the AKP’ s dominance. The right-wing Nationalist Action Party( MHP) has flip-flopped, and gave its support to the constitutional reform; the pro-Kurdish People’ s Democratic Party( HDP) has been weakened by successive waves of arrests and runs the risk of falling below the 10 % national vote threshold for parliamentary representation. In this context, President Erdogan ' s only credible challenger seems to be Meral Aksener, also known as Turkey’ s‘ Iron Lady’( see Parties, above). However, her hopes of winning are slight, as she would need the support of the Republican People’ s Party( CHP) and has to attract votes from Kurds and nationalists, who currently vote for the AKP.
Shifting foreign policy Turkish diplomacy shifted focus in 2017. The country drew closer to Russia, China and Iran, while relations with its Western allies deteriorated, a trend that is expected to continue into 2018. Turkey is well placed to expand its role in the region while Saudi Arabia and Iran are preoccupied with internal and external challenges.
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