Global Risk Outlook 2018 Volume 1 | Page 12

AMERICAS A VIABLE CHALLENGE? Roughly a year out from the elections, in a generic congressional poll 49.1% of voters stated that they would vote for the Democratic Party while just 36.1% are leaning towards the GOP. Although a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives would be difficult to realize, a Democrat majority in the House of Representatives may have a significant impact on the course of the country. US MIDTERMS: KEY ISSUES BUDGET ECONOMY INFRASTRUCTURE GERRYMANDERING IMPEACHMENT On the other hand, the continuation of a Republican majority in both Houses might reinvigorate the GOP’s political agenda. The announced retirement of Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Bob Corker (R-TN) will remove two of Trump’s most ardent critics and make it easier to push ahead – Bob Corker was the only Senate Republican to vote against the tax bill when it was first introduced in the Senate. However, chances are high that Democrats will be able to regain the majority in the House of Representatives, allowing them to pursue an even more fervent role as the opposition party. A significant portion of Trump’s agenda could be affected, including budget, trade agreements, immigration reform, infrastructure, and deregulation of Wall Street. A Democratic majority in Congress will also have an influence on redistricting after the 2020 census and may even provide the opportunity - however remote - to impeach Trump. There is also, in this scenario, a risk of further political gridlock.  See the full analysis on the GRI site. 11