AMERICAS United States
WILL MIDTERMS BE THE END OF # MAGA ?
Friederike Andres asks : could Trump ’ s low approval ratings and lack of major legislation clear the path to a Democratic majority in Congress - and derail his vision for America ? With inputs from Steven Spinello .
Since 2014 , Republicans have held a majority in both houses , with 51 seats in the Senate and 239 seats in the House of Representatives . In 2018 , all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election , as well as 33 of the Senate ’ s 100 seats . Although races for both houses will be highly contested , Republicans will maintain a majority in the Senate . Out of the eight seats the GOP will be defending next year , only two could potentially flip : Jeff Flake , Senator of Arizona , and Dean Heller , Senator of Nevada . Both were highly contested in 2016 . While Trump won Arizona with a slim margin of 49.5 %, Clinton carried Nevada with 47.9 % of the votes .
In the House of Representatives , the Republicans will have a fight on their hands . Key seats the party will be defending include California ’ s 49th district , Rep . Darrell Issa ’ s seat . Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 with 50.7 %. Overall , around 20 districts are regarded as contested .
OUTLOOK FOR THE REPUBLICANS
On the other side of the aisle , Democrats will have to defend a significant number of seats in both houses . Out of the 25 seats Democrats will be defending in the Senate in 2018 , the seats of John Donnelly ( D-IN ), Claire McCaskill ( D-MO ), Heidi Heitkamp ( D-ND ), and Joe Manchin ( D-VA ) are all in states that Trump won by large margins over Clinton . The challenge is made even greater in these states by the fact that Trump ' s approval ratings have stayed above the national average . In West Virginia , which he carried with 68 %, Trump ’ s approval is at 60 %.
OUTLOOK FOR THE DEMOCRATS
The Democrats have more of a fighting chance in the House of Representatives . They ' ll need at least 24 seats in order to reach the majority . And although Hillary Clinton had 23 districts currently represented by the GOP , the Democrats will need to defend 12 districts Trump carried in 2016 .
The Republicans will face several challenges . They ' ll have to decide whether to run on a pro-Trump agenda or whether to distance themselves from the President . So far , Trump-style messaging failed them in elections in Virginia and Alabama in 2017 . They ' ll also have to confront President Trump ’ s historically low approval ratings , which remain below 40 % through his first year . Finally , Republicans ' credibility suffers from the administration ' s failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act , and the seeming unpopularity of the tax bill .
Campaigns such as MoveOn . org , Indivisible , and Run for Something could help with the Dems ' low turnout problem . Millennials seem to have been mobilised : while overall voter turnout increased from 42.7 % in 2013 to 47.7 % this year across party lines , voter participation among millennials increased by 8 %. In November ' s gubernatorial election in Virginia , where Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam beat Republican candidate Ed Gillespie with 53.9 %, some 81 % of millennials voted for Northam .
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