AMERICAS United States
WILL MIDTERMS BE THE END OF # MAGA?
Friederike Andres asks: could Trump’ s low approval ratings and lack of major legislation clear the path to a Democratic majority in Congress- and derail his vision for America? With inputs from Steven Spinello.
Since 2014, Republicans have held a majority in both houses, with 51 seats in the Senate and 239 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2018, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, as well as 33 of the Senate’ s 100 seats. Although races for both houses will be highly contested, Republicans will maintain a majority in the Senate. Out of the eight seats the GOP will be defending next year, only two could potentially flip: Jeff Flake, Senator of Arizona, and Dean Heller, Senator of Nevada. Both were highly contested in 2016. While Trump won Arizona with a slim margin of 49.5 %, Clinton carried Nevada with 47.9 % of the votes.
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans will have a fight on their hands. Key seats the party will be defending include California’ s 49th district, Rep. Darrell Issa’ s seat. Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 with 50.7 %. Overall, around 20 districts are regarded as contested.
OUTLOOK FOR THE REPUBLICANS
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats will have to defend a significant number of seats in both houses. Out of the 25 seats Democrats will be defending in the Senate in 2018, the seats of John Donnelly( D-IN), Claire McCaskill( D-MO), Heidi Heitkamp( D-ND), and Joe Manchin( D-VA) are all in states that Trump won by large margins over Clinton. The challenge is made even greater in these states by the fact that Trump ' s approval ratings have stayed above the national average. In West Virginia, which he carried with 68 %, Trump’ s approval is at 60 %.
OUTLOOK FOR THE DEMOCRATS
The Democrats have more of a fighting chance in the House of Representatives. They ' ll need at least 24 seats in order to reach the majority. And although Hillary Clinton had 23 districts currently represented by the GOP, the Democrats will need to defend 12 districts Trump carried in 2016.
The Republicans will face several challenges. They ' ll have to decide whether to run on a pro-Trump agenda or whether to distance themselves from the President. So far, Trump-style messaging failed them in elections in Virginia and Alabama in 2017. They ' ll also have to confront President Trump’ s historically low approval ratings, which remain below 40 % through his first year. Finally, Republicans ' credibility suffers from the administration ' s failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, and the seeming unpopularity of the tax bill.
Campaigns such as MoveOn. org, Indivisible, and Run for Something could help with the Dems ' low turnout problem. Millennials seem to have been mobilised: while overall voter turnout increased from 42.7 % in 2013 to 47.7 % this year across party lines, voter participation among millennials increased by 8 %. In November ' s gubernatorial election in Virginia, where Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam beat Republican candidate Ed Gillespie with 53.9 %, some 81 % of millennials voted for Northam.
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