OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HORN OF AFRICA?
From worrying to weird
Arguably the most African important election of 2017 happened in a country that technically doesn't exist. 3
As Somalia sleepwalks down the path of failed statehood, one part - Somaliland - has been working hard to
break this cycle. Having declared independence in 1991, Somaliland leads an alternate existence within
the ostensible borders of Somalia.
Somaliland’s peaceful election bolsters its efforts to nurture a democracy and gain recognition. Its
success makes the case for a reworking of international approaches in the Horn of Africa. Its situation
demonstrates the need for less rigid adherence to ideas of territorial integrity, and more pragmatism i n
2018.
Some investment is already taking place, such as the UAE’s $90 million naval base: Dubai has also
announced a $442 million deal to modernize Berbera Port. Given its strategic location, Somaliland is
competing with Djibouti to host international military and logistical centres. This is part of a larger plan
aiming at economic diversification, especially in response to the decimation of the country’s main
economic engine, cattle exports, due to drought.
4
THE INTERVENTION NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
Completely surrounded by South Africa, Lesotho threatens to become a pocket of instability in the heart
of Africa’s second largest economy. Factionalism in the nation’s military and high-profile assassinations
have led to a security crisis. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is sending troops to
Lesotho to stabilize the region.
This is not the first time. In 1998, Nelson Mandela, in conjunction with the SADC, authorized a military
intervention in Lesotho after post-election violence saw parts of the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF) back
the opposition.
Now, LDF officers face trials for conspiracy and murder, and it
was recently discovered that three individuals were killed by the
LDF in May. The fact that the LDF is taking out ads in newspapers
promising not kill its critics demonstrates the bizarre and
tenuous security situation in the country. With the SADC force
reduced from 1,200 to 258 soldiers and repeatedly delayed, it's
not clear that the situation will be effectively contained in 2018.
THE RETURN OF NIGERIA'S MURDER CULT
A gang of blood magic cultists known as the Badoo, who murdered some 100 people over the past
two years, have made a comeback. What makes this story important is not only the sensational
nature of the killings but what it says about Nigeria. Take note, this is not happening in some
remote valley infested with Boko Haram fighters - it’s happening in a city of half a million (Ikorodu),
less than a thirty minute drive from Lagos.
The situation in Ikorodu highlights the serious security deficit facing Africa’s largest economy,
known for having the worst police force in the world. Corruption and incompetence erode the rule
of law, with mistrust of security forces leading to vigilante justice. Faced with random killings and a
seemingly powerless police force, Nigerians in Ikorodu and elsewhere are resorting to lynch mobs
and public executions of suspected Badoo and petty criminals alike.
If the Badoo resume their killing spree in earnest in 2018, Nigerian security forces will have
another, very public failure to contend with. If the government cannot even keep the environs of its
largest city safe, it seriously undermines President Buhari’s efforts to court investors and bring
stability to Nigeria. Already a divisive figure, the last thing Buhari needs is slumping support in
Lagos State ahead of the 2019 elections.
9
5