AMERICAS
Latin America
THE
CHANGING
FACE
OF
LATIN
AMERICA
GRI experts Benedetta di Matteo, Lorena Valente, Niall Walsh and Sam Schofield have produced a
forthcoming Special Report on the series of crucial elections in the region in 2018. Here, they share
some of their key forecasts.
Latin American voters are not a happy
NIALL ON MEXICO
bunch. Discontent with mainstream
political parties is rising in a region
plagued by corruption, organized crime
and economic stagnation. And another
trend seems to be rising on this tide:
populism.
Mexicans will likely be choosing between a
continuity candidate (Yale economist and
Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade) - and
one who vows to break down the current order
(AMLO).
In Mexico, leftist candidate Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is leading Echoing the populist rhetoric north of the Rio
the polls for the July 2018 presidential Grande, AMLO has vowed to ‘drain the swamp’
elections. In Colombia, the left-wing and obliterate corruption in government 'from
politician Gustavo Petro is supported by a
significant part of the Colombian
electorate, which will vote for President
in May 2018. Recent polls also show
right-wing presidential candidate and
former military officer Jair Bolsonaro in
second place in Brazil. In Venezuela,
President Maduro's position is
top to bottom’. There is growing support for
his populist agenda: in a recent poll by El
Universal, he is the front-runner with up to 31%
planning to vote for him.
Considering his anti-trade and anti-
privatisation stances, one of the major areas of
strengthening against all odds, making concern will be AMLO’s opposition to NAFTA.
his re-election likely. He sees the agreement as another attempt to
internationalise the Mexican economy at the
Support for President Maduro may also expense of its people. Given his ‘Mexico First’
increase regionally, due to ideological stance, coupled with economic nationalism in
affinities with some of the other
candidates. Shifting politics could have a
divisive effect on neoliberal regional
initiatives such the Lima Group and the
the United States, the election of AMLO could
seriously threaten the future of NAFTA and
change Mexico’s role in the global economy.
Pacific Alliance. By 2019, we could be
looking at a very different Latin America.
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