El Niño and what it means for fleets
WORDS BY ANTONINA JOSON
If you’ ve had your eyes on the news this past year, you might have noticed news outlets bracing everyone for El Niño. Unfortunately, this phenomenon isn’ t a passing trend, but rather a global weather phenomenon that can severely affect food security, safety, and more.
The extreme weather this phenomenon brings unprecedented heat and extreme rainfall depending on the area. This year, the world is experiencing the start of a“ super El Niño,” which began in June, and predicted to intensify from August to October 2026. According to the Climate Impact Company, the full cycle is expected to end mid-2027.
Corporations around the world, especially those in the global south, are preparing for this climate pattern.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is part of a recurring weather pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation( ENSO) cycle. This cycle has three phases: El Niño( warm), a neutral phase, and La Niña( cool). These cyclical events usually last for 9 months up to a year but may extend further depending on global climate conditions.
An El Niño phase develops when trade winds from the Pacific Ocean reverse or weaken. This pushes warm surface water back to South America, when, during the neutral phase, it would normally be pushed towards Asia. This prevents“ upwelling” in South America’ s waters, a phenomenon where cool water from the deep ocean replaces the moving warm surface water.
When upwelling is prevented during El Niño, the contrasting temperatures between east and west Pacific winds weaken. Trade winds also weaken, while precipitation follows the movement of warm waters back towards South America. Coastal South America then faces heavy wet conditions, while Southeast Asia undergoes drought.
Fun fact: The name El Niño comes from Peruvian fisherfolk, who have observed these weather conditions since at least the 17th century. Since the phenomenon is most felt during Christmastime, the fisherfolk dubbed it“ El Niño de Navidad”(“ Christ Child”).
Though the weather pattern occurs within the Pacific Ocean, the ENSO cycle and its effects are felt worldwide. In addition to the earth’ s warming climate, these weather disruptions cause the global south to experience warmer droughts while the northern hemisphere undergoes strong rainfall.
This year’ s El Niño is expected to be“ the strongest in living memory,” as its strength is largely unprecedented by experts. Reuters published an article with findings from several experts on the topic of this year’ s El Niño. One of the findings from the US Climate Prediction Centre predicted that there is“ a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event” from October to December this year. The article quoted the institution, adding that there is also a
8 ISSUE 60 AUGUST 2026 / WWW. AFMA. ORG. AU