FLEETDRIVE
69 per cent chance that this historic event would“ exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”
According to Australia ' s Bureau of Meteorology, the ENSO cycle has“ the strongest influence on year-to-year climate variability.” During an El Niño, Australia’ s eastern half experiences decreasing rainfall during winter-spring— specifically a 28 per cent decline in average rainfall across the Murray- Darling Basin. The continent’ s most notable droughts( 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006, and 2015) all occurred in relation to a period of El Niño.
Australia’ s eastern half is not only susceptible to drought, but increased frost risk as well. The Bureau of Meteorology wrote that“ regions of New South Wales and northern Victoria can experience 15-30 % more frost days during El Niño than the historical average." The average daily heat extremes in Adelaide and Melbourne may run even hotter during an El Niño period.
Altogether, Southeast Australia is at risk of higher fire danger ratings and fire danger seasons after an El Niño year.
What does this mean for fleets?
While El Niño is not a rare occurrence, the phenomenon’ s increasing strength is more than just a short-term concern. Climate change and the increase of greenhouse gases increase the likelihood of weather extremes and unpredictability.
In this case, fleet safety must consider additional factors.
First, weather unpredictability is an obstacle across the board in terms of fleet safety. Preplanned routes and deliveries can be completely changed at the drop of a hat. Drivers may encounter environmental situations they’ re not trained for. Vehicles face mechanical risk, especially if not prepared to endure unusual weather.
Nature does not recognise roads, routes, or even protocols— it is completely out of anyone’ s control. Preventive measures such as specialised driver training, continuous tune-ups, technology upgrades, and further environment-related education could mitigate expected damage from vehicles on the road.
Second, weather extremes are not limited to wet and dry. Frost, winds, dust storms, and more expose both driver and vehicle to risky conditions. Rerouting may be the least of a fleet operator’ s worries as roads could be flooded, frozen, slippery, or even rough from wear-andtear.
In this case, vehicles must be prepared more than ever. Thorough inspections incorporated with checks of current weather conditions may prove helpful. Route optimisation software will give drivers real-time updates, avoiding hazardous areas while keeping them on track.
ISSUE 60 AUGUST 2026 / WWW. AFMA. ORG. AU 9