ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q1 2017 | Page 9

European car parc may hit pre-crisis levels just as another starts
TOTAL EU PASSENGER CAR SALES 2016
At a country level Germany and the UK continue to be the two largest car markets with
France taking the third place. But Italy has grown faster than France for the last three
ROE
25.7%
consecutive years and new car sales are now 40% higher than in 2013 compared to France
Germany
22.2%
Portugal
1.4%
where sales over the same period have risen by just 12.6%.
Whilst Italy failed to break above the 2 million car barrier last year and under normal
growth in new car sales, driven by a 2018 VAT hike would be enough to see it overtake
France to become Europe’s third largest market. Whilst this may not seem significant on
its own it should be remembered that only 6 years ago France was
when the Italian market collapsed. With the French market so key
for its domestic brands this movement in where new cars are being
sold could have some significant repercussions for the French OEMs.
Looking at used car sales and the car parc of 1-5-year-old cars for
both left-hand drive and right-hand drive cars has now returned to
pre-crisis levels. This means any upward pressure on RVs due to
limited supply has now all but dissipated. However, as is to be
expected this is just at the highest level and when you look at
UK
17.8%
Italy
12.1%
France
13.3%
1-5 year old car parc
Europe’s second largest car market which it had been since 2008
Spain
7.6%
70.00 14.00
60.00 12.00
50.00 10.00
40.00 8.00
30.00 6.00
20.00 4.00
10.00 2.00
0.00 0.00
circumstances would be borderline to do it this year, the possibility of a greater than 15%
specific body styles, engine sizes and fuel types there is both
scarcity of supply and significant over supply.
LHD 4-5 years old LHD 3-4 years old LHD 2-3 years old LHD 1-2 years old
LHD <1 year old RHD 4-5 years old RHD 3-4 years old RHD 2-3 years old
RHD 1-2 years old
European Automotive Report - 2017 Quarter 1
RHD <1 year old
Source: ACEA.BE – Historic data
Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecasts
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