ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q1 2017 | Page 8

After the peak annual rise of 9.2% in 2015 for the EU28 and
EFTA3 the rate of growth is falling again this year. As
EU28 & EFTA3 Annual Car Sales Trends and Forecast
.
18.00
Germany
Spain
16.00
UK
Portugal
France
ROE
Italy
previously mentioned we still expect a rise of 4.8% this year
there will be some countries, notably the UK but also others 14.00
like Ireland where new car sales trends are going into 12.00
2017 is likely to be a year of political chess, impacting
economies and trade as negotiations over Brexit and the
need for both sides to show that the UK will be better/worse
0.19 0.20
1.63 1.61
10.00
2.33 2.49
8.00
6.00
off out of the EU continue. 4.00
Whilst many are reporting on the weak sterling, in reality it 2.00
is hovering around the same level as it was in 2013 and 2014. 0.00
This means there is still some opportunity for OEMs to push Source:
tactical registrations should the need arise but we still
3.88
3.93 3.15
reverse.
3.85 4.08
2.00 2.06
3.43 3.58
0.16
3.30 3.20
0.21 0.95 0.22
0.15
1.16
0.98 0.81 0.10 0.11
2.16
0.70 0.72
2.16
1.96 1.75
1.40 1.30
2.30
2.05
2.25 2.20 1.90 1.79
4.29
4.62 4.73 4.67
4.55 4.54
3.65
0.21 0.21
0.21 0.21 1.27 1.28 0.21 0.20 0.20
1.20 1.19
1.22
0.18 1.15
1.20
1.03
0.14
2.11
2.09
1.99 1.92 1.85
0.86
1.82 1.99
1.57
1.36
2.14 2.18 2.09 2.04 2.08
1.92 2.02 2.10
1.80
3.33
1.99
2.69 2.60 2.65 2.54 2.47 2.59 2.67
2.34 2.40
2.48 2.63
2.13
2.03 1.94 2.04 2.26
3.47 3.15 3.09 3.81 2.92 3.17 3.08 2.95 3.04 3.21 3.35 3.43 3.55 3.69 3.67 3.44 3.26
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e
ACEA.BE – Historic data
Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecasts
expect a 3.6% fall in new car sales this year compared to 4.4% and 2.3% increases in France and Germany respectively. Spain is likely to see
new car sales rise by 6.2% as the economy strengthens but Italy has some unique challenges. Assuming it meets its fiscal obligations and it
therefore does not need to increase VAT in January 2018 we expect new car sales to rise by around 9.2% in 2017. If by around Q3 we are
seeing the Italian VAT rise as being likely then new car sales will rise rapidly and could be enough to result in total 2017 Italian new car sales
to be as much as 15%-20% above 2016 levels.
The overall geopolitical picture still indicates a slower but continuing European new car sales growth over the next couple of years and we
now believe a downturn in total new car sales in the EU28 and EFTA3 will not be until 2020.
European Automotive Report - 2017 Quarter 1
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