Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 77
however, Arlington Municipal Airport should fare well in its competitive environment as it is served by
a runway capable of handling the majority of general aviation aircraft. Moreover, the Airport is fully
capable of being expanded to meet future demand.
Consideration must also be given to the current and future aviation conditions at the Airport. Arling‐
ton Municipal Airport provides an array of aviation services and it has a runway that offers instrument
approach capabilities which makes the facility accessible during poor weather conditions. In short, Ar‐
lington Municipal Airport will continue to be favored by business operators, as well as private aircraft
owners, due to its location and available facilities.
Table 2K provides a summary of all based aircraft forecasts. Note: The two existing comparative fore‐
casts previously discussed have been updated by applying their respective AAGRs to the actual current
based aircraft figure of 254. This results in growth rates that are the same as the previous forecasts
but the new based aircraft figures are relative to the plan years of this study.
TABLE 2K
Based Aircraft Forecast Summary
Arlington Municipal Airport
Constant Market Share Projection of Tarrant County Aircraft (AAGR ‐ 1.17%)
Historical Market Share Projection of Tarrant County Aircraft (AAGR ‐ 0.79%)
Constant Ratio Projection Per 1,000 City Residents (AAGR ‐ 0.85%)
Historical Ratio Projection Per 1,000 City Residents (AAGR ‐ 2.36%)
Updated Existing Forecasts (utilizing current based aircraft)
2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (AAGR ‐ 1.29%)
2012 NCTCOG System Plan (AAGR ‐ 1.47%)
Selected Forecast (AAGR ‐ 1.68%)
Source: Coffman Associates analysis
Base Year
(2014)
254
254
254
254
254
254
254
2019 2024
268
259
267
305 285
275
276
321
271
273
275 289
295
300
The historical ratio projection per 1,000 population, when applied to the current based aircraft count
of 254, results in a long term forecast of 321 based aircraft. This likely represents the higher end of the
planning envelope. The historical average market share projection of Tarrant County aircraft has a low
growth rate of 0.79 percent. Except for the years associated with the economic recession, the Airport’s
market share of county registered aircraft has been significantly higher than the historical average. As
a result, this forecast will serve as the low end of the planning envelope.
The City of Arlington has given every indication that it plans to continue strong support of Arlington
Municipal Airport. During the past several years, significant investments have been made to the facili‐
ty. As such, Arlington Municipal Airport should continue to meet the needs of aircraft in the regional
aviation system.
The based aircraft forecast for Arlington Municipal Airport to be used for this Development Plan are:
Year 2019 – 275
Year 2024 – 300
Chapter Two - 22