According to the World Bank, the Ashraf Ghani government managed to slightly increase
the GDP growth rate to 2.2% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017, however, the Afghan economy is unlikely
to be able to recover in the foreseeable future 5 .
All this confirms the assessments that most of the economic growth in the period up to
2014 was generated not by the development of basic industries and agriculture, but by various
kinds of orders from foreign troops.
4. High dependence of the Afghan budget on foreign financial assistance. Afghanistan has
only partially created its sources for the formation of the national budget. In the national budget
for 2017-2018, international assistance provided by 30 different donors, which is approximately
66% 6 . The World Bank points out that Afghanistan is “a unique country in its extraordinary
dependence on foreign aid” 7 . Although it should still be noted that budget revenues as a whole
grew by 1.75 billion to 2.5 billion dollars in the period from 2008 to 2018 including improving
tax collection by 13% 8 .
The four indicators above show that the US-Kabul
combination needs a new concept for the creation and
development of the Afghan economic basis, and it is here that
the first serious difficulty is noted, since this requires two
conditions of a quantitative and qualitative nature.
The “quantitative” condition provides for a sharp increase
in the scale of investment in the Afghan industry, agriculture,
science and education. If this is done with the same degree of
efficiency as it was in the period 2002–2014, when, as already
mentioned, more than $ 103 billion was poured into the
economy, Afghanistan will need at least another decade and
several tens of billions of dollars with condition of stable
internal situation. Kabul, naturally, has no such means. As for the United States, under President
D. Trump, one can hardly expect large investments in the Afghan economy. Thus, in the costs of
the military operation in Afghanistan in 2018, only $ 780 million was allocated for the provision
of economic assistance 9 .
In turn, the “quality” condition provides for a fundamental change in the psychological
model of the development of Afghan society, which is a very difficult task. In fact, as observations
show, in countries where there is internal instability and there is no firm confidence in the future,
a certain part of society and the elite is criminalized and ceases to associate itself with its country
in the long term, considering it mainly as a source of profit. From this, in turn, the problems of
corruption, capital outflow, money laundering, and investing in those industries grow, which give
a quick return on investments, including illegal areas such as drug production. A classic example
is Russia of the 1990s, which turned into a supplier of raw materials, and was seriously
criminalized according to some data in the period 1992-2000. According to various schemes, no
less than $ 150 billion outflowed abroad. 10
Afghanistan is also an excellent illustration of this problem against the background of
continuing military-political instability. According to the Afghan Ministry of Finance, approximately
65% of all financial resources in the country are illegally earned, transferred and spent.
THE WORLD BANK PRESS RELEASE. Afghanistan’s economic growth to pick up slightly, World Bank Says. November 21, 2017.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/11/21/afghanistan-economic-growth-to-pick-up-slightly-fall-2017
6 The State of Aid and Poverty in 2018: A new look at aid effectiveness in Afghanistan. Author: Jelena Bjelica and Thomas Ruttig. Date: 17 May
2018. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-state-of-aid-and-poverty-in-2018-a-new-look-at-aid-effectiveness-in-afghanistan/
7 The State of Aid and Poverty in 2018: A new look at aid effectiveness in Afghanistan. Author: Jelena Bjelica and Thomas Ruttig. Date: 17 May
2018. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-state-of-aid-and-poverty-in-2018-a-new-look-at-aid-effectiveness-in-afghanistan/
8 The 2018 Afghan National Budget: Confronting hard realities by accelerating reforms. Author: Bill Byrd and Kate Clark Date: 5 December 2017
9 Pentagon: Afghan War Costing US $45 Billion Per Year. Feb. 6, 2018. https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-02-06/pentagon-
afghan-war-costing-us-45-billion-per-year
10
КАНАЛЫ
УТЕЧКИ
КАПИТАЛА
ДЕЙСТВУЮТ
ПО
ЗАПАДНЫМ
ТЕХНОЛОГИЯМ.
15
Марта
2001
г.
https://www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2001/03/15/12147-kanaly-utechki-kapitala-deystvuyut-po-zapadnym-tehnologiyam
46
5