NARROWING UNITED STATES CONCEPTUAL OPPORTUNITIES IN
AFGHANISTAN: INDICATORS AND SCENARIOS
Rustam Makhmudov,
Independent expert
The Afghan conflict is currently in a state of dynamic development at many levels, ranging from hostilities to
a fine geopolitical game that has unfolded between the leading global and regional actors, which is still very far
from reaching a win-win situation. Assessments of the experts about what is happening in the country seriously
differ from one another. According to some, the situation went into a general conceptual crisis, but according to
other estimates, the conceptual crisis concerns only the “US-official Kabul” bundle, while for the Taliban, Russia,
China, Iran, Pakistan, the situation is seen as an open field of opportunity to implement their own tactical and
strategic plans and interests.
Socio-economic and political-military groups
If we take the second group of assessments as a starting point, then the question arises
how true is the assertion about the conceptual impasse in which the linkage ended up between
“US-official Kabul”. The answer to it, it seems, lies in the analysis of the situation with the
effectiveness of this group of two key challenges for the Afghan crisis - socio-economic and
military-political.
Regarding the group of socio-economic challenges, we can immediately say that the
responses from the United States and Kabul were partial and, first of all, because they did not
create a full-fledged economic basis that would lead Afghanistan to a path of sustainable growth
and high self-sufficiency in a number of basic sectors. According to statistics, the United States,
before reducing its military presence in 2014, poured 103.8 billion dollars financial aid to
Afghanistan, which exceeded the amount of aid under the Marshall Plan for restoring Europe
after the Second World War (102.97 billion dollars 1 ). However, the return on the billions spent
was relatively low, as confirmed by at least four of the following indicators:
1. The ratio of exports and imports. According to the World Bank (WB), in 2016, Afghan
imports exceeded exports by almost 11 times. Afghanistan imported various goods for $ 6.534
billion, and exported only for $ 0.596 billion 2 .
2. Structure of export and import. Afghan exports mainly consist of agricultural products,
minerals, various types of raw materials, carpets, skins and leather, i.e. industrial products are
not represented in exports, which is one of the key indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of
economic reforms 3 . At the same time, imports, due to the weakness of the national industry, are
represented by a wide range of goods and products, ranging from consumer and food products
to fuel, metals, chemicals, machinery, and electricity.
3. Damage to the economy resulted from the withdrawal of most of the foreign troops.
According to Afghan and international data, the withdrawal of troops in 2014 led to a sharp drop
in GDP growth rates from an average of 6.9% in the period 2007-2012 up to 1.3% in 2014. The
transport sector suffered the most, forming about 22% of GDP, 100 thousand jobs were lost.
Due to the reduction in orders from the American army, the construction sector and the services
sector, which accounted for 40% of GDP 4 , were also severely affected.
Расходы США на программы по восстановлению Афганистана превысили размеры плана Маршалла. 1 августа 2014.
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1354583
2 Afghanistan trade statistics. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/AFG
3
Afghanistan
Product
exports
and
imports
2016.
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/AFG/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/WLD/Product/All-Groups
4
Afghanistan’s surprisingly predictable economic crash. http://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2016/03/14/afghanistan%E2%80%99s-
surprisingly-predictable-economic-crash
45
1